Crop progress is starting to become more of a factor in price discovery. This is primarily the case with soybeans where pod setting is running 10 percent ahead of last year. This is giving the cash market the indication that new crop soybeans will likely be available earlier than normal as well. As a result, some buyers have started to soften new crop bids, mainly in areas where farmer engagement has been higher. A question this early maturity brings is if weather stress has had more of an impact at this time of the season than usual as well.

Despite the elevated fighting in the Black Sea between Ukraine and Russia, Ukraine grain exports to start the 2026/27 marketing year are twice the volume to start last year. This is a result of elevated rail movement into the European Union. Initially it was suspected this was to reach the export market through land routes. While this is partially true, drought losses are building in the EU, and grain imports are needed to cover production shortfalls.

Ukraine commodity exports have seen less of an impact recently than those out of Russia. Russia has seen major attacks on its infrastructure in recent weeks, leading to the close of three of the country’s main export terminals. Not only is Russia seeing its exports decline in the Black Sea, but the Sea of Azov is now closed to vessel traffic. Even if these terminals were open, Russian ports are seeing very few deliveries in fear of attacks from Ukrainian forces. If Russian grain sales remain stifled it will soon start to impact the country’s economy, and war fund.

The July cattle on feed report showed a July 1st inventory of 11.4 million head, a 2 percent increase from last year. Steers on feed totaled 7.12 million head and heifers were 4.25 million head. This was in line with trade expectations, as were placements and marketings. June cattle placements were down 3 percent from last year at 1.4 million head. June marketings were also down 3 percent on the year at 1.66 million head. June marketings were the lowest for the month since data collection began in 1996.

The semi-annual cattle inventory has also been released with a total U.S. cattle herd of 94.2 million head. This was just slightly higher than the 94 million on July 1st, 2025. Beef cows were down 1 percent at 28.5 million head, while the dairy herd was up 2 percent at 9.65 million head. The USDA is now forecasting a 2026 calf crop of 32.5 million head, -2 percent from last year.

The U.S. cold storage report for June 30th was mixed. The U.S. frozen beef supply was 389.23 million pounds, down 3 percent from the prior month and last year. The frozen pork supply was 458.22 million pounds, up 1$ from May and 9 percent more than June 2025. The pork belly inventory was 52.22 million pounds, down 3 percent from last month but 18 percent more than last year. The total U.S. red meat supply was down 1 percent from the prior month and up 3 percent from a year ago.

The Argentine soybean harvest is well underway, but farmers in the country are not marketing new crop inventory. In fact, inbound soybean deliveries are so low Argentine crushers have turned to imports from Paraguay to satisfy demand. This has dropped Argentine crush margins into negative territory for some processors, especially with elevated transit costs. This is the primary cause of the strength we have seen in U.S. soy meal values, and in turn, U.S. crush margins. While price is the reason given for the low soybean sales in Argentina, some doubt is being cast over crop size.

The Brazilian soy crusher ABIOVE is now forecasting the country will export 115.4 mmt of soybeans this year, a 2 mmt increase from their prior estimate. ABIOVE is also predicting soy meal exports of 24.9 mmt this year, almost steady from the prior estimate. The country is forecast to have a soybean carryout of 6.58 mmt this year, down 1.3 mmt from the prior estimate.

While much of the attention on Brazil ag production is centered on corn and soybeans, the country is expanding its pork production as well. Brazil’s 2026 pork production is now forecast at 5.87 mmt compared to 5.59 mmt in 2025. Brazil is forecast to export 1.6 mmt of pork this year, up 100,000 mt from last year. For 2027 Brazil is expected to produce 6.05 mmt of pork and export 1.7 mmt.

Mexico is rapidly becoming one of the world’s leading commodity importing countries. Mexico imported 23.9 mmt of grain and oilseeds in the first half of 2026, the highest volume in 11 years. The largest imports were on corn at 12.3 mmt, up 8 percent from the same period in 2025. The United States was the source for 11.7 mmt of yellow corn imports, mainly for feed. The lack of feeder cattle exports to the U.S. led to elevated feed demand domestically, helping raise these totals. Mexico also reported 5.08 mmt of soybean imports to start 226, an increase of 15 percent. Mexico has imported 4.2 percent less wheat though due to elevated prices.

RISK DISCLAIMER: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options is substantial. Before trading, you should carefully consider your financial position to determine if futures trading is appropriate. When trading futures and/or options, it is possible to lose more than the full value of your account. All funds committed should be risk capital. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The information contained in this report is collected from a variety of sources and is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate. This report is provided for informational purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor is it intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities herein named.