The official start of the 2026/27 marketing year has not yet taken place on corn and soybeans, but trade is closely monitoring corn and soybean sales. Corn sales for the 2026/27 marketing year total 11.4 million metric tons, a 22 percent decline from last year’s pace. Increased competition, price and availability are behind the decline in year-to-year sales. New crop corn bookings are still the 4th highest in the past 26 years, however. In a reversal from last year, year-to-date soybean sales are double last year’s with 11.85 mmt. This is the largest soybean book to start in four years.

More analysts are giving their opinions of potential U.S. yields, mainly corn. In the August supply and demand report, the USDA trimmed its corn yield estimate to 180.7 bushels but added in harvested aces to hold production nearly steady at 16 billion bu. In an interesting move, we have seen an analyst project a 181-bushel yield, but 2 million fewer harvested acres. U.S. corn production this year is already expected to fall 330 million bu short of demand, and this shift in acres would widen that spread considerably.

When it comes to global grain production, significant attention remains on the European Union. EU corn production this year is now forecast at 46.9 million metric tons. This is 10 mmt less than the USDA is currently using in balance sheets and would greatly impact global trade outlooks. The EU has also increased its corn import projection by 1 mmt, putting it at 25 mmt. This comes as Ukraine is also predicting a sharp loss in grain production due to a lack of funds.

Another region of the world being closely monitored on the weather front is China. Weather and crop conditions across China are widely mixed and have been for months, and these are being reflected in production outlooks. Parts of China remain in drought and will need rain to finish. Other regions of China have seen flooding rains, cutting crop outlooks. We are also seeing crop quality being closely monitored in China as crops are not drying in fields. China has been an active importer of grains and oilseeds and will likely remain so given these conditions.

The main driver in recent grain trade has been elevated fighting in the Black Sea. Ukraine has caused enough damage to Russian ports that President Putin has admitted Russian exports are suffering. It is believed that 70 percent of Russian export capacity has been idled from fighting, and attacks continue. Putin also claims it will take months to repair port damages, but others claim it will be years before normal shipping out of the Black Sea returns. Not only has this brought wheat buyers to the U.S., but elevated demand for other feed grains, including barley and sorghum.

The disruptions we are seeing to Black Sea export activity may have long-lasting implications for global markets. Ukraine officials are reporting August exports have fallen 60 percent from a year ago as attacks in the Black Sea have escalated in recent weeks. Ukraine has been exporting into the European Union by rail and waterways, but low water has caused issues and volumes are much less than though sea routes.

The concern with this issue in Ukraine exports is that farmers may not have income needed to plant the next season of crops. Analysts in Ukraine feel this will have a negative impact on Ukraine production with several trimming their acreage estimates. Some feel Ukraine farmers may seed 12 to 17 million fewer acres this coming season.

The monthly cold storage report contained few surprises for trade. The July 31st U.S. frozen beef supply totaled 382.71 million pounds, 2 percent less than the end of June and 4 percent less than July 2025. The U.S. frozen pork supply was 439.43 million pounds, 3 percent less than June but 9 percent more than July 2025. The U.S. frozen pork belly supply was down a large 31 percent in June but up 14 percent from last July at 35.99 million pounds. The total red meat supply was off 3 percent from a year ago and up 2 percent from last July.

Analysts are starting to predict this coming season’s acreage in Brazil. Brazil farmers are now forecast to seed 121.55 million acres of soybeans this year, nearly steady with last year’s acreage. Corn acres in Brazil are forecast to increase by 1.73 million to total 57.55 million. We may not see increased export competition from Brazil though as domestic consumption will take these added bushels.

While Brazilian farmers may seed more corn acres, yields are being debated. Brazil is forecast to import just 38.4 million metric tons of fertilizer this year. This is 5 million fewer tons than what were imported last year.

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