Mielke Market Weekly By Lee Mielke U.S. dairy product output was down some in August but still well above a year ago, as August milk production was down from July, as were components, and more milk went into the bottle or the carton for school reopening. The USDA’s latest Dairy Products report showed August cheese production totaled 1.245 billion pounds, down 17.9 million pounds or 1.4 percent from July, but up 17.2 million or 1.4 percent from August 2025. Year to date, U.S. vats produced just under 10 billion pounds, 9,998,787 to be exact, up 2.3 percent from a year ago. The Oct. 5 Daily Dairy Report stated the increased cheese output was “driven by a 3.7 percent increase in Italian-style cheeses that offset a 0.9 percent decrease in American-style cheeses.” The DDR adds: “Manufacturers took advantage of favorable milk prices and made Parmesan, which is typically aged for a year, increasing output by nearly 26 percent, or 10.9 million pounds versus last year.” Looking at the top three cheesemakers: Wisconsin produced 303.1 million pounds, down 1.8 percent from July, but 2.4 percent above August 2025. California produced 197.0 million, down 3.8 percent from July, and 6.6 percent less than a year ago. Idaho provided 85.6 million pounds, up 0.7 percent from July, but 0.4 percent less than a year ago. Italian style cheese totaled 541.3 million pounds, down 1.7 percent from July, but 3.7 percent more a year ago, putting YTD output at 4.3 billion pounds, up 4.2 percent from 2025. Mozzarella, at 420.9 million pounds, was up 1.8 percent from a year ago, with YTD output hitting 3.4 billion pounds, up 2.3 percent from 2025. American cheese output slipped to 477.0 million pounds, down 0.6 percent from July, and down 0.9 percent from a year ago. YTD 3.9 billion pounds had been produced, down 0.1 percent from a year ago. Cheddar, the cheese sold daily at the CME, saw production fall to 325.9 million pounds, down 3.1 million or 0.9 percent from July, and down 3.0 million or 0.9 percent from a year ago. Butter production slipped to 187.4 million pounds, down 1.7 million pounds or 0.9 percent from July, but was up 11.1 million pounds or 6.3 percent from a year ago. YTD, 1.7 billion pounds had been churned, up 6.0 percent from a year ago. Yogurt production totaled 468.3 million pounds, up 1.6 percent from a year ago, with YTD output hitting 3.7 billion pounds, up 5.4 percent. Hard ice cream, at 64.9 million pounds, was down 2.3 percent from a year ago, with YTD output hitting 517.3 million pounds, up 2.8 percent. The abundant cheese production has resulted in plenty of whey and there’s good demand for it. Dry whey output came in at 75.1 million pounds, down 6.1 million pounds or 7.4 percent from July, but up 5.6 million or 8.2 percent above a year ago. Output for the eight months hit 620.1 million pounds, up 8.5 percent from a year ago. Whey stocks fell to 61.3 million pounds, down 7.1 million or 10.4 percent from July, but up 10.9 million pounds, or 21.6 percent from a year ago. Another in-demand product right now with CME prices approaching record highs, nonfat dry milk output fell to 132.2 million pounds, down 32.9 million pounds or 19.9 percent from July, but up 11.5 million or 9.6 percent from a year ago. YTD output hit 1.3 billion pounds, up 10.5 percent. Stocks plunged to 216.3 million pounds, down 16.5 million or 7.1 percent from July, and down 8.1 million pounds or 3.6 percent from 2025. Skim milk powder production climbed to 28.9 million pounds, up 6.9 million pounds or 31.4 percent from July, but was down 14.4 million or 33.1 percent from a year ago. YTD skim milk powder hit 256.8 million pounds, down 21 percent from a year ago. With such strong milk and dairy product production, exports remain crucial, especially for cheese. U.S. exports increased 2 percent on a milk solids equivalent basis in August, according to the UD Dairy Export Council, which stated, “It was a welcome return to growth after a combined 4 percent decline in June and July. August U.S. export value increased 10 percent year over year to $919 million.” Cheese sailings totaled 130.1 million pounds in August, up 9.5 percent from August 2025 on a 30-day adjusted basis. They were down 9.6 percent from July however, which posted an exceptionally high number. HighGround Dairy says this was the first July-to-August decline since 2021. “The U.S. price advantage over Europe and Oceania narrowed over the summer, which may have contributed to the slowdown, with purchases easing month-on-month from key customers including Mexico, South Korea, Japan and Australia.” Butter exports totaled 15.5 million pounds, down 12.2 percent, but up 55.8 percent, year to date. Dry whey exports, at 66.3 million pounds, hit a record for the second month in a row, according to HighGround, and increased by 4.4 million pounds or more year over year to China, Canada and Vietnam. “U.S. whey has traded at a significant discount to European product since second quarter 2026,” says HGD, “Which has supported strong export volumes.” Exports of nonfat/skim milk powder fell to 100.8 million pounds, down 19.3 percent from a year ago, as high U.S. prices sent buyers elsewhere, and put exports at their lowest level since June 2019, according to HGD. “Some of August’s volumes were likely booked in May, when CME spot prices hit an all-time high and carried roughly a 60 cent per pound premium to European and Kiwi product.” The USDEC added: “U.S. suppliers saw healthy growth in milk protein concentrate (MPC) and low-protein whey, as global protein demand continued to drive demand. YOY exports of MPC had their biggest month in nearly four years, with volume rising 36 percent to 5,225 metric tons in August. Protein-fortified product manufacturers appear to be turning to MPC, given the supply and price situation for WPC80+. U.S. MPC shipments to Brazil jumped 533 percent, and exports to Japan rose from 2 MT in August 2025 to 222 MT this August.” Dairy Market News reports that milk supplies in the Central region continued loosening this week as milk output was steady to slightly higher. Distribution challenges persist across the region as elevated diesel prices are contributing to rising transportation concerns. Spot milk availability varies by area – available in the Midwest but remains tight in the Southwest. Spot prices at mid-week ranged 50 cents-over to $4-over Class. Cheese processors across the region indicate strong demand and steady production, with increased interest in mozzarella and provolone. Colored Cheddar markets remain steady. Inventories for both blocks and barrels are described as heavy, and spot loads of each are readily available. Cheese manufacturers in the West report milk needs are being met, says DMN, and spot milk remains generally available. Most plants maintained strong production. Spot cheese is available and inventories remain strong. Domestic demand is mixed, with retail and food service down. |