| FAO report shows dairy contributes 4 percent to greenhouse gas emission |
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In politics, there’s been a lot of “hot air,” pardon the pun, related to the dairy industry’s role in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global climate change, but a new United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report counters some of that rhetoric, showing dairy contributes far less to greenhouse gas emissions than what is widely cited by anti-livestock groups.
Dairy Profit Weekly Editor Dave Natzke, said in Friday’s broadcast that much of the ongoing greenhouse gas and global climate change debate related to the livestock and dairy industries centers around a 2006 United Nation’s report, “Livestock’s Long Shadow – Environmental Issues and Options,” which claimed livestock agriculture contributed 18 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, even more than emissions from all transportation.
Anti-meat and milk groups have used those estimates to call for “Meatless Mondays,” Natzke said, and a reduction in dairy product consumption as a means to “save the planet,” however, one of the authors of that earlier report has admitted statistics were exaggerated, and this week, a new FAO report estimates global milk production, processing and transportation contributes just 2.7 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. And, if you add emissions related to meat produced from dairy animals, the estimate is just 4 percent.
The FAO report, “Greenhouse gas emissions from the dairy sector,” focuses on the entire dairy food chain, from feed production and on-farm emissions, to emissions associated with milk processing and packaging and transportation of dairy products to retailers.
Dairy industry leaders applauded the new information, saying it gives a more accurate assessment of dairy’s greenhouse gas emissions.
Milk production improves in March
March milk production in the top 23 states totaled 15.4 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent from March 2009, according to USDA’s latest Milk Production report. The March total for all the states was 16.6 billion pounds, up 0.6 percent.
Revisions put February output in the 23 states at 13.7 billion pounds, up 0.3 percent from February 2009. The revision represented an increase of 17 million pounds from last month’s preliminary estimate. January output was revised lower by 44 million pounds and February output was lowered by about 24 million.
March cow numbers in the 23 states totaled 8.32 million head, up 1,000 from February, but 162,000 below a year ago. Output per cow averaged 1,846 pounds, up 51 pounds from a year ago.
California production was down just 0.7 percent from a year ago on a loss of 63,000 cows, but output per cow gained 55 pounds. Wisconsin was up 6.3 percent, thanks to 4,000 more cows and 100 pounds more per cow.
New York was up 0.2 percent despite a loss of 13,000 cows, but output per cow was up 40 pounds. Idaho was up 3 percent, thanks to 4,000 more cows and a 40 pound gain per cow. Pennsylvania was up 1.6 percent.
Cow numbers were down 10,000 head, but output per cow was up 60 pounds. Minnesota was up 3.8 percent, due to 2,000 more cows and a 55 pound gain per cow. The biggest increase was in Washington State, up 7.9 percent, thanks to 10,000 more cows and a 70-pound gain per cow. Wisconsin was next, followed by Michigan. The biggest decline was in Missouri, down 8.4 percent, on 7,000 fewer cows and 25 pounds less per cow. Colorado was next, followed by Arizona.
Friday Livestock Slaughter report says an estimated 256,500 dairy cows were slaughtered under federal inspection in March, up 33,500 from February and 18,300 more than March 2009. The January-March cull cow slaughter totaled about 711,500 head, down about 51,000 from a year earlier.
Downes-O’Neill broker reports bearish production
Downes-O’Neill Dairy Broker Dave Kurzawski said the March Milk Production report was bearish in Wednesday’s broadcast, but may not necessarily impact cheese prices. He said there’s been pressure on the cheese market, but believes demand will respond to a price that’s now “south of $1.40.”
Pointing to the January and February downward revisions, Kurzawski said “We’re starting from a little bit lower point of total production than we initially thought but that number is relatively bearish for the market right now.”
He acknowledged that weather is improving and the spring flush is occurring so there’s not much worry of a milk shortage right now. “The caveat here,” he said, “Is that Wisconsin, Washington, Michigan, and Idaho (states registering sizable gains) are not the only places that we need to be producing milk.”
“The world needs milk,” he said. “So while we have a bearish report here I tend to think that the bubbling of demand from butter, nonfat powders, and the dry whey powder markets will ultimately supersede this milk production report.”
Oceania is struggling with low production, according to Kurzawski. New Zealand is in a two month draught and didn’t have a great flush. Output is 2 1.75 percent below a year ago. Australia is down 5-6 percent, “So we have to look at the supply of milk from a worldwide standpoint, not just what’s going on here.”
Kurzawski suggests producers lock in a floor price, admitting that “today may not be the day, but they should be shopping for the best possible/worst case scenario price.” He remains relatively bullish for milk prices for the next 60-90 days. The block cheese price ended the third week of April at $1.3675 per pound, down 3 cents on the week, but still 18.75 cents above a year ago. Barrel closed at $1.3475, down 1.75 cents on the week, but 24 cents above a year ago. Fifty-nine cars of block traded hands and 23 of barrel. The NASS U.S. average block price jumped 7.5 cents, to $1.3917. Barrel averaged $1.4330, up 7.3 cents.
Butter closed the week at $1.57, up a penny, and 34.7 5 cents above a year ago. Nothing was sold all week. NASS butter averaged $1.4958, up 2.1 cents.
Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk closed Friday at $1.2975, up a half-cent on the week. Extra Grade closed at $1.25, up 4 cents. NASS powder averaged $1.1428, up 3.2 cents, and dry whey averaged 36.48 cents, up 0.2 cent. |
| 4/28/2010 |
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