It is as predictable as ants at a Fourth of July picnic: a food-related scare that dominates the headlines and the television news. Last summer, it was H1N1 or, as uninformed called it, “swine flu.”

The year before that it was food vs. fuel, where the fear mongers had the world worried we were going to run out of food because we had turned it all into ethanol. BSE, bird flu, and Alar are just a few of the other food scares that reside in the food phobia hall of fame. All of these were backed up by scientists and experts who confidently predicted cataclysmic consequences; and all of these turned out to be not true and had no major impact on the health of consumers or the safety of the food supply.

Yet, despite this abysmal record, year after year, the media is ready to report and consumers and ready to believe the latest food scare story. This year’s scare story is already beginning to simmer and promises to boil over this summer.

This summer’s big food story will be the price of meat, particularly the price of beef. Already, a number of stories have begun to appear in the popular press. “Rising meat costs could put the brakes on your spring cookouts,” reported WBNS-TV in Columbus, Ohio.

The Seattle Times reported recently, “More expensive pork and beef may revive food inflation.” In California, where they just love to bash ethanol, KGO-TV in San Francisco had the audacity to blame high meat prices on ethanol, “Meat prices could rise to record highs this summer. Experts say the reason behind it is the rising demand for ethanol.”

This is just the beginning. Soon, there will be stories on how the record high cost of meat is depriving the poor and unemployed of a good source of nutrition. Social liberals will call for price controls on meat; consumer groups will blame the greedy farmers; and, since this is an election year, politicians will host hearings in Washington to look into the record high price of meat.

Two key facts will be lost in all of this hullabaloo: the reason for the increase in meat prices, and the fact cheap meat can still be found. The reason behind the increase in meat prices is a classic case of supply and demand.

Purdue Ag Economist Chris Hurt said, “Livestock producers went through some very tough economic times in 2009; and, as a result, reduced the number of animals they were raising. Now supplies are down and prices are going up.”

In addition, U.S. consumers are feeling a bit more confident about the economy and are buying more meat. U.S. meat exports, which were down last year, are also on the rise as the world economy slowly recovers.

All these factors have come together to increase demand at a time when supplies are low.

With characteristic exaggeration, the media will tell everyone that all meat is expensive and everyone’s grocery bills will go through the roof. In reality, there will be many good bargains in the meat case this summer. It is a standard practice in the retail food industry to feature or discount popular cuts of meat to generate store traffic.

Savvy shoppers, who are willing to shop around, watch for sales, and stock up, will see very little increase in their grocery bills. Another aspect of this story that will be left out of most media reports is that, with these high prices, livestock producers will respond by breeding and feeding more animals. This will increase the supply later this year and bring down the price.

So, as the days grow longer and spring rolls into summer, prepare yourself for another season of beef bashing and pork pounding in the nation’s news media.

There will be plenty of name calling and lots of blame being tossed around. The truly sad aspect is that this is a normal part of a healthy economy. Prices go up and down in response to supply and demand. Farmers respond to market forces just as consumers do.
This is the way things are supposed to be, a very basic economic fact of life that has been forgotten by most of our pundits and politicians. The next big food scare is here; I just hope we can survive it.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.