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Consumers show little demand for pork at counter last month

The average price of pork in grocery stores during April was $2.919 per pound. That was up 0.5 cents from March and also half a penny higher than April 2009. Adjusted for inflation, retail pork prices were down 2 percent from April 2009. Domestic per capita pork usage in April was down 5 percent compared to a year earlier. Less consumption despite a lower deflated price means retail pork demand was down in April, 7 percent lower by our calculations.
The average live price of 51-52 percent lean hogs sold in April was $57.43 per cwt., up $5 from March and $14.60 higher than April 2009. The wholesale to retail price spread was squeezed hard in April by a 30 percent higher wholesale pork value with only a 0.2 percent higher retail price. Pork packer margins were a bit wider this April than last.

Each year since USDA started the mandatory price reporting series in 2001, the western Corn Belt has had a higher annual average hog price than the eastern Corn Belt. The spread was widest in 2009 when the WBC carcass price averaged $2.53 per cwt. higher than the ECB. The relationship appears to have changed with the April closing of the Morrell plant in Sioux City. The average ECB hog price since that plant closed is within a dime of the WCB average price. Yesterday, the ECB average was 48 cents above the WCB average. Slaughter capacity matters.

China officials reopened its market to U.S. pork on May 14. This is not likely to have a big short-term impact, but is very good news for the long run.

This week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.016 million head, up 3.5 percent from the week before, but down 2.4 percent compared to the same week last year.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending May 8 was 201 pounds, 1 pound lighter than the week before, but 1 pound heavier than a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights last week averaged 270.3 pounds, up 1.1 pounds compared to a year earlier.

The turmoil in the financial markets spilled over into commodities this week and not in a positive way. The June lean hog futures contract ended the week at $81.54 per cwt., down $2.01 from the previous Friday. The July contract settled at $82.27, down $1.55 for the week. August closed the week $1.18 lower at $82.32 per cwt. and October ended the week at $74.55 per cwt.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $87.76 per cwt., down $3.05 from the previous Thursday, but still up $27.88 compared to the same day last year.

The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $81.50 per cwt., $1.90 lower than the previous Friday. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern Corn Belt $80.82, western Corn Belt $82.55, and Iowa-Minnesota $83 per cwt.

The top live hog price Friday at Sioux Falls was $58.50 per cwt., down $2.50 from the previous Friday. Peoria topped at $54.50 on Friday and Zumbrota, Minn., had a top price of $57. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $58.75 per cwt., $1.50 lower than the previous Friday.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Glenn Grimes or Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.

5/26/2010