By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH
Indiana Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — The nation’s corn stocks as of June 1 are much lower than many experts had predicted, according to a market analyst with Allendale, Inc. of Fort Wayne, Ind.

The latest quarterly Grain Stocks report from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) lists corn stocks at 4.31 billion bushels. Pre-report estimates were about 4.6 billion bushels, David Kohli said.

“This is a game-changer. Our usage of corn was much greater than expected.”

While corn stocks were less than many projected, the amount in storage is up 1 percent from the same time last year, according to the NASS report. The report was released June 30.

More corn was used due to low test weight and poor quality, Kohli said.

“You use more when the test weight is low. And the corn was very moist when it was put into the bins, so it’s deteriorated. We needed to use more corn because it wasn’t good.”

The increased corn usage could also be due to ethanol production and exports, said Greg Wagner, an independent agricultural analyst.

China, which has been having problems in its corn-growing regions, has become an importer, he noted.

“We may have overstated the crop last year, we may have a problem with feed conversion, with test weights with corn and that’s where the consumption is coming from,” he explained.

With fewer corn stocks than expected, weather and anything else that could impact final corn yields must be closely monitored, said Jim Bower, president of Bower Trading, Inc.

In the last decade, worldwide consumption of corn has increased 200 million metric tons, he said.

As the growing season heads into the summer months, the industry can ill-afford to have any problems that would decrease yields in the United States or China, he noted.

“The world has changed a great deal. This whole corn production thing, as long as everything goes smoothly, doesn’t seem to be too volatile. But we’re just one step away from a major problem if something from a crop standpoint happens globally.”

Soybean stocks were down 4 percent from the same period a year ago. As of June 1, 571 million bushels of soybeans were in storage nationwide.

“The soybean numbers weren’t quite as dramatic, but again, we saw the quarterly stocks of soybeans down about 4 percent from estimates which indicates a relatively strong demand for nearby soybeans particularly here out of the United States,” Bower said.
The amount of wheat in storage increased 48 percent from a year ago. As of June 1, stocks of all wheat totaled 973 million bushels.
Last week, NASS also released a report on planted acreage.
Nationwide, corn and soybean acreage numbers are up 2 percent over 2009, while all wheat acreage decreased 8 percent.

Corn acreage nationwide is estimated at 87.9 million, and soybean acreage nationwide is estimated at a record high 78.9 million. All wheat acreage is estimated at 54.3 million acres, the lowest total in the United States since 1971. Winter wheat acreage is 37.7 million, down 13 percent from last year.

Just because soybean acreage is reported to be up nationwide doesn’t mean that many acres were planted, Kohli said.

“Some farmers thought, if they were having problems getting their corn in, that they’d just plant beans instead. But in many areas, it got to be too wet and the beans didn’t get planted either,” he explained.

The winter wheat crop in many areas, including parts of the Midwest, is dealing with vomitoxin and scab, Kohli said.
In northern Indiana, 25 to 30 percent of the winter wheat crop could be infected with scab, he said, adding the problem is worse to the south.

Indiana’s corn acreage is 6 million, up from last year’s 5.6 million. Soybean acreage in the state is estimated at 5.3 million, down from last year’s 5.5 million. Hoosier farmers planted an estimated 300,000 acres of winter wheat, down from last year’s 470,000.
The state’s corn numbers were a bit unexpected, said Greg Matli, deputy director of the NASS Indiana field office.

“Compared to the March intentions, yes, they were a surprise. But intentions are just that, and we treat them as such.”

In Ohio, corn acreage is 3.6 million, up from last year’s 3.4 million; soybean acreage is 4.7 million, up from 4.6 million; winter wheat acreage is 800,000, down from about 1 million.

In Michigan, corn acreage is 2.5 million, up from 2.4 million; soybean acreage is 2.1 million, up from 2 million; winter wheat is 510,000, down from 620,000. In Illinois, corn acreage is 12.6 million, up from 12 million; soybean acreage is 9.3 million, down from 9.4 million; winter wheat acreage is 350,000, down from 850,000.

In Iowa, corn acreage is 13.3 million, down from 13.7 million; soybean acreage is 10.2 million, up from 9.6 million; winter wheat acreage is 15,000, down from 28,000.

In Kentucky, corn acreage is 1.3 million, up from 1.2 million; soybean acreage is 1.4 million, down from 1.43 million; winter wheat acreage is 420,000, down from 510,000.

In Tennessee, corn acreage is 680,000, up from 670,000; soybean acreage is 1.5 million, down from 1.6 million; winter wheat acreage is 280,000, down from 430,000.