By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Imagery of the mythological Horn of Plenty may come to mind when thinking about American growers in the past two weeks.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is forecasting a record harvest for corn and soybeans, based on Aug. 1 surveys. And the United States is one of the world’s exporters helping make up the shortfall, in the wake of news that Russia has halted exporting wheat through the end of the year (see related story, page 9).

In a turnaround from last year’s low U.S. wheat plantings, farmers are showing a great deal of interest for this fall. “We haven’t planted wheat on our farm for 10 years,” said Indiana Agriculture Director Joe Kelsay, “but (we’ve) bought a wheat drill to be ready for this winter.”

He’s not alone; according to Purdue University ag economist Dr. Chris Hurt, seed dealers can’t keep up with sudden demand for wheat seed. “We’re going to see interest in wheat like we haven’t seen,” he said.

But just as Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures didn’t skyrocket last week as one might expect, neither did December corn futures fall on NASS’ report of a record-setting anticipated 13.37 billion bushels – despite being higher than analysts’ expectations of nearly 13.3 billion.

The USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service issued a report stating that expectations for higher wheat prices “are not substantiated by the reality of the global supply situation.” Exporters have enough supplies to more than make up for the shortfall from Russia, as well as Ukraine and the European Union.

“We’re not in a desperate situation on wheat in the world,” Hurt said. “It’s Russia that’s in a desperate situation.”

With corn, Allendale analyst John Kleist told CBOT demand is up because of its discounted price compared to wheat. Too, there is the matter of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) considering a hike of the maximum allowable ethanol suitable for all vehicles, from E10 to E12 or E15 – if approved this fall, it would create more demand for corn ethanol.

“I try to remind corn growers that EPA is under tremendous liability,” Hurt said, “if there would be any damage to motors, especially small motors” from too high a blend of ethanol into petroleum gasoline.

In Indiana alone, he said by next spring the state’s ethanol plants should cross the 1 billion gallons-per-year production threshold. This would use 375 million bushels of corn (Hoosier farmers are expected to harvest just over 1 billion bushels this fall).

Renewable Fuels Assoc. Vice President of Research Geoff Cooper believes the record yield shows farmers can meet demands of more ethanol without expanding acreage.

“This will be the third 13 billion-bushel crop on record, and it’s worth noting that this year’s crop will be produced on nearly six million fewer acres than the first 13 billion-bushel crop just three years ago,” he stated. “Once again, today’s report further undermines the theory that U.S. farmers will need to convert nonagricultural land to cropland to keep up with increasing demand.”

China recently purchased 40 million bushels of corn from the U.S., which Hurt said is the first time it has since the mid-1990s. China is usually self-sufficient in corn, but with an increasing population and a growing middle class able to spend more on food, demand for meat, milk and eggs is also growing. “There’s a lot of people thinking we’re right on the verge” of establishing a corn export market in China, he added.

Soybeans
U.S. soybeans are in strong demand there, a market Hurt said has developed just in the last 15 years. Of the 1.41 billion bushels of soybeans the U.S. has exported this year, he said 800 million have gone to China – the equivalent of three Indianas in production.

Soybeans are also expected to be a record-breaker this year, at 3.43 billion bushels. Like corn, at 165 bushels per acre, soybean yield is also anticipated to be a record-setter at 44 bushels (this would tie with last year’s yield, which set the record). National wheat production is expected to total 2.26 billion bushels, up 2 percent from 2009, and a yield of 46.9 bushels would be a record.

Overall weather has been good to growers, despite pockets of too much or too little rain. This year was the third-quickest planting pace on record for soybeans, according to Indiana NASS Director Greg Preston, even though it did slow down shortly into planting.

“What the higher temperatures did was really push the growth of the corn crop,” he explained, adding Indiana has received 4.8 inches more precipitation this year than normal.

Preston also said there’s a lot of ears of corn this year – not a record-breaker, but an extra 400 ears per acre means three more bushels. The earliest corn harvest possible is early September because planting got under way in April and kept on-pace.

“If we had not had those three weeks in April for planting, the world would be hurting for food and fuel,” Hurt said. The rest of August’s weather is still important for crop condition, he explained, but because of its development so far, the corn is not as highly vulnerable to heat stress as it might be otherwise.

Preston said beans are 5-7 days ahead of development partly because there was an early winter wheat harvest; Hurt pointed out there weren’t many double-crop beans in Indiana this year.

It’s not just growers who are interested in high crop yields. Livestock farmers have dropped herd and flock numbers to accommodate leaner times and higher costs, and Hurt said beef, pork and poultry are now getting back to profitability.

He estimates dairy will have to downsize further and take maybe another year to be profitable again.

Indiana’s anticipated corn production is a record-breaker, at 1.03 billion bushels. Iowa leads the nation at 2.33 billion bushels, followed by Illinois at 2.23 billion. Also in the Farm World coverage area are Ohio with 594.9 million, Michigan at 343.2 million, Kentucky at 167 million and Tennessee with 75 million.

Iowa will also lead the nation in soybeans, with 517.7 million bushels at harvest, followed by Illinois with 453.3 million and Indiana with 259.2 million. Ohio growers will harvest 215.3 million bushels, followed by Michigan at 89.9 million, Tennessee at 55 million and Kentucky with 53.8 million.

In winter wheat, the Eastern Corn Belt trailed other states in production. Indiana harvested 16.8 million bushels; Illinois, 17.6 million; Ohio, 46.4 million; Michigan, 34.8 million; Kentucky, 17 million; and Tennessee, 9.9 million.