By DOUG GRAVES
Ohio Correspondent

GREENVILLE, Ohio — Within the past few months, a severe drought and a multitude of wildfires have decimated more than one-fifth of Russia’s wheat fields.

With Russia announcing a ban on wheat exports, wheat farmers in Ohio and other states could be planting more wheat this fall, as the demand and price per bushel has increased.

“There’s money in this for some people, yes; for others, no,” said Mark Wachtman, president of the Ohio Wheat Growers Assoc. (OWGA). “The mindset is that for those who have raised wheat and are serious about it, there’s a chance for good earning potential.”

Russia is the third-leading exporter of wheat in the world, second to the United States and the European Union. The country’s ban on exporting went into effect earlier this month, and some Russian sources say the ban could last until 2012. The Russian Grain Union said it expects exports to decline to 15 million tons, down from 21.4 million in 2009.

News of the events in Russia have been felt here in the U.S. Wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade surged in July by 42 percent, the biggest monthly gain in more than a half-century, and are now the highest they have been in nearly two years.

With no immediate end in sight for the drought in Russia, analysts expect prices to continue to rally. Expectations about Russia’s slash in exports by at least 30 percent have sent wheat prices soaring.

“Seed distributors went from not being able to give wheat away, to being worried if they will have enough,” Wachtman said.

The majority of the damage to Russia’s wheat crop has been caused by the drought, one of the worst in decades as much of the country suffers through the hottest summer since record-keeping began 130 years ago. But recently, wildfires raging through much of western Russia have spread into farmland and there are fears more fields will be lost. The fires struck on the eve of Russia’s day of harvest.

“It’s very likely that overseas buyers will turn to the U.S. in the short term to fulfill their needs,” said Ohio Wheat Growers Executive Director Dwayne Siekman. “It’s too early to estimate the impact it will have on planting decisions this fall for Ohio. However, Ohio farmers are up for the challenge.”

Ohio is the nation’s leader in growing soft red winter wheat, used in pan breads, general-purpose flour, cookies and crackers. Farmers in Ohio will plant wheat in the fall following the corn and soybean harvests. But Wachtman says farmers looking to cash in on high wheat prices should be cautiously optimistic.

“A farmer can contract and lock in that good price per bushel, but they still have to deliver against that contract,” Wachtman said. “Last fall conditions were wet and many farmers were still planting wheat into November.

“The problem is, soybeans have to be harvested first and when you get past the middle of October, most wheat growers won’t plant any more. After October 20 your yield potential is not that great.”

The USDA has forecast a production surplus of about 1 billion bushels. That diminishes the likelihood of a repeat of the global rally in the cost of grains experienced in 2008, when wheat prices touched a high of $13.84 a bushel at the Kansas City Board of Trade.

“No one really knows for sure what will happen to the market,” said Brad Haas, chairman for the Ohio Small Grains Marketing Program and board member for OWGA. “It’s hard to say with the different grades of wheat.”

Aside from the price for wheat, the U.S. will likely have little problem meeting the export demands.

“There’s enough wheat on hand in the U.S. to cover next year, specifically soft red winter wheat,” Wachtman said. “The 2009 crop was a bumper harvest year. It’s not like we’re going to run out of wheat. It’s just a matter of moving the wheat around the world where it’s needed.”

Russia isn’t the only trouble spot for wheat production. Australia and others are facing drought and poor production levels, which moved the Food and Agriculture organization of the United Nations to reduce its production forecast this year.

As for consumers, higher wheat prices may mean that Americans and Europeans will pay slightly more for bread.

According to an AP report, Russia’s top agriculture official reportedly says the country may resume wheat exports in October. Russian news agencies quoted Deputy Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as saying Aug. 10 that the government will “look into the possibility” of lifting the ban after the harvest figures are compiled.

RIA Novosti reported that Zubkov, who oversees agriculture, made the announcement after telephone conversations with officials from Egypt, Israel and Turkey. All three are major importers of Russian wheat.