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Obama should bet the farm to fix the economy

The U.S. economy is a stubborn thing. Despite hundreds of billions of federal dollars, two years of media hype and countless pronouncements by top administration officials that things are getting better, the economy remains stuck in the doldrums.

Unemployment is not decreasing, business growth is not increasing, and consumer confidence remains low. With mid-term elections approaching, the White House has trotted out yet another economic rescue plan designed to turn the U.S. economy around and bring back the good ol’ days.

Lost in all this financial flatulation is the fact that one sector of the U.S. economy is enjoying a rapid and pronounced recovery. Yet, the factors that are producing this economic turnaround are being ignored by our leaders, lawmakers and the media.

The new Obama plan includes an estimated $200 billion in tax breaks for businesses that invest in new plants and equipment; a $100 billion extension of the business tax credit for research and development; and $50 billion during the next decade to improve roads, rails and other infrastructure.

These plans come on top of existing administration proposals to extend tax cuts to households earning less than $250,000 a year and to provide $30 billion to spark an increase in lending to small businesses. A survey by CNN indicated most economists and business strategists feel these actions will do little to help the U.S. economy. They pointed out that more tax incentives will not create more jobs.

One economist suggested that, when businesses invest in new research and development, they may find more efficient ways to produce their products or services and actually reduce their workforce. The Obama plan misses a key factor that has led to the amazing turnaround in the farm economy in the past year.

After a 20 percent drop in 2009, farm earnings are on the rise. USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack announced in late August that agriculture is the one sector of the U.S. economy that is showing a rebound.

“Today’s reports are encouraging news,” he said. “They show that, while American agriculture has struggled through difficult economic times, the hard work and resilience of America’s farmers and ranchers have helped put American agriculture on the road to recovery.”

And they did it without a federal bailout, a cash for cows program, or the USDA buying stock in John Deere. All three measures of farm sector earnings experienced a rapid rebound and are forecast to rise in 2010: net cash income is expected to rise more than 23 percent to $85.3 billion; net farm income has rebounded, up 24 percent from 2009; net value-added, at $127.3 billion, is expected to be up $15.2 billion from 2009 and to remain 17.7 percent above its 10-year average.

In addition, U.S. farm exports are on the rise.

“USDA is excited to announce that we are raising our forecast for agricultural exports for Fiscal Year 2010 to $107.5 billion – the second highest year on record,” Vilsack crowed during a press conference.

Agency forecasts show continued growth in export demand into 2011.

Therein lies the key to the recovery of the farm economy and the solution to the ills of the general economy: demand. Crop and livestock prices are up because of demand - not mandated demand from some federal government program but market-driven demand.

This same kind of demand would spur the U.S. economy and would have businesses putting out the “Now Hiring” sign faster than you can say double-dip recession.

Another lesson that can be learned from the farm economy is what farmers did to help bring about the recovery.

Secretary Vilsack said it best when he said, “A strong belief in the value of hard work positioned our famers to capitalize on the economic recovery; and American agriculture has improved on its incredible productivity and adaptability – embracing new research and innovation like few other sectors of the American economy.”

Unlike the investment bankers and mortgage brokers who bellied up to the federal feed trough when times got tough and the crybaby union workers who expected Uncle Sam to bring back their jobs, American agriculture did not ask for a handout.

American farmers have also managed their debt, unlike most of the rest of the nation. American agriculture entered the recession with very little debt relative to the rest of the economy – and farm sector debt is expected to decrease in 2010.

Many American businesses and American consumers have been living well beyond their means and, as a result, suffered badly when the credit gravy train derailed. The government program offering more easy credit only postpones our economic recovery.

Most farm families stand to do well, economically, over the next few years, and not because of “farm welfare programs” since those programs, for the most part, no longer exist. Neither is the turnabout in the farm economy due to the billions of dollars the USDA has been dumping into rural broadband installation or small town community center construction.

The U.S. farm economy is doing well because the government is not micromanaging it. This should serve as a shining example for the economic planners skulking around the White House.

The U.S. farm economy should also be an example to the rest of America that - if you work hard, don’t go into debt over your head, and stop relying on other people to solve your problems - you too can survive and thrive, even during a recession.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.

9/15/2010