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August retail pork prices hit record for 4th month
Hog Outlook
Ron Plain
University of Missouri - Columbia

The consumer price index continues to show a low rate of inflation. The August CPI was only 1.1 percent higher than a year earlier.

Retail pork prices during August were record-high for the fourth month in a row. The average price of pork in grocery stores last month was $3.232 per pound, up 4.7 cents from July and up 29.8 cents compared to August 2009. The wholesale value of pork was also record-high during August.

Pork marketing margins are tighter than a year ago. Packer margins were 0.8 cent per pound lower than in August 2009 and distribution-retailing margins were 13.6 cents lower. August hog prices were the highest of any month since August 2008.

Hog prices were $24.93 per cwt. higher on a live weight basis this August than last. Year-ago hog and pork prices were low because of the “swine flu” scare.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $91.81 per cwt., up $1.56 cents from the previous Thursday. Loins, bellies and hams were higher, but butts were lower. Bellies averaged $1.5725 per pound, the highest ever.

The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $76.43 per cwt., $3.03 lower than the previous Friday. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern Corn Belt $75.81, western Corn Belt $79.02 and Iowa-Minnesota $78.97 per cwt.

The top live hog prices Friday were $55 per cwt. at Zumbrota and $54 at Peoria. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $55.75 per cwt., 75 cents higher than the previous Friday.

Last week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.164 million head, up 13.9 percent from the week before (which was light because of Labor Day) but down 6.4 percent compared to slaughter during the same week last year.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Sept. 4 was 197 pounds, up 1 pound from the week before and even with a year ago.

Iowa-Minnesota live weights two weeks ago averaged 268.1 pounds, down 0.8 pound compared to a year earlier. This was the sixth consecutive week that Iowa-Minnesota weights have averaged below year-ago.

The October lean hog futures contract ended the week at $77.70 per cwt., up 45 cents from the previous Friday. The December contract settled at $75.95, up $1.25 for the week. February closed the week $1.53 higher, at $79.60 per cwt.

The December corn contract ended the week at $5.135, up 35 cents from the previous Friday. October soybean meal futures gained $13.50 last week, to settle at $304.70 a ton.

This Friday, the USDA will release its quarterly estimate of the nation’s hog inventory. I expect them to report that the breeding herd is 0.9 percent smaller than a year ago and the market hog inventory is down 3 percent compared to Sept. 1, 2009.

I am forecasting fall farrowings to be down 0.9 percent and winter farrowings to be off 0.5 percent, compared to a year ago.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.

9/22/2010