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Further drought steps up risks for Kentucky yields

By TIM THORNBERRY
Kentucky Correspondent

HICKMAN, Ky. — Some welcome rain made its way into the state last week, but it will take more than a passing storm to make up the deficit that has left much of Kentucky and surrounding states in a drought.

The U.S. Drought Monitor shows moderate to severe drought conditions spreading from west to east. Those findings were confirmed by the extension of a Level I Drought Declaration issued by the Office of the State Climatologist and the Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet, in coordination with the state Drought Mitigation Team.

Drought conditions are officially present in more than 50 counties, with a growing number considered to be abnormally dry. Farmers especially in western Kentucky have been hard hit by the weather this year; so much that Gov. Steve Beshear has made a second request within a month to USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack for disaster assistance.

“The expanding drought conditions continue to severely impact our agriculture sector,” stated Beshear in a letter to Vilsack. “The impacts of this drought will be felt in other sectors, as reduced yields in grain crops and damage to pastures that have not recovered from previous droughts are realized.”

Kentucky is in the middle of what has been the driest part of the year, but the long-term outlook may hold some hope, according to Kentucky Weather Center meteorologist Chris Bailey.

“While September and October are traditionally our driest months ... there is some hope that may not be the case this year, as the overall weather pattern does look more active than normal in the coming weeks. Add in the possibility of another landfalling tropical system throwing rains into the state, and you can ease the drought conditions even more,” he said.

Bailey also said he has seen worse droughts impacting Kentucky over the past decade, as this does not have the breadth of some of the recent ones. He is forecasting rains, some of which will be somewhat heavy this week, especially for the eastern portion of the state.

But it is the farms in the west suffering most. Many regions there were skipped by timely thunderstorms that dotted central and eastern Kentucky during the early summer.

Cam Kenimer is the University of Kentucky College of Agriculture extension agent for agriculture and natural resources in Fulton County, located at the extreme western end of the state. He said while it is too early to tell the full extent of losses associated with the weather, crop yields will definitely be off.

“Not only was it dry while the crops were growing, but in late June and early July it was really hot. During (corn) pollination it was near 100 degrees or in the 100s. Because of that, we had pollination problems, so we have yield reductions,” he said.

Kenimer said the conditions didn’t affect all producers, although a third or more of the county did have problems. Overall corn totals there could be down by as much as 50 bushels an acre.
“Last year, according to the ag stats service, our county averaged 174 bushels an acre. This year I think we will be around the 120 to 125 bushels an acre range,” he said.

Soybeans have also taken a beating; however, Kenimer said the Group 2 beans planted about the third week of April should have a near normal harvest.

Jim Major, a producer in Fulton County, grows 3,000 acres of corn, wheat and soybeans and is trying to take the dry conditions in stride. “We’ve not harvested enough soybeans to get a good feel for it,” he said of expected yields. “Our early beans are probably off 35 to 40 percent, but we haven’t gotten into our mid-season beans enough to know.”

Major said the corn he harvested on his better ground was down by about 10-15 percent, while weaker ground produced approximately 30 percent less than normal. He also said while there have been droughts as bad or worse, the 2010 growing season has been unique.

“This year was unusual. We had a flood and a drought all in the same year. We had too much rain in May. Locally, we had over nine inches and in June, July and August, we had maybe an inch-and-a-half of mostly just pop-up showers,” he said.

While some crops won’t see the benefit of any rains heading their way, Major said, for late-planted and double-crop beans, moisture would be beneficial right now.

But battling the forces of nature is not new to farmers. Major explained there have been other years with higher temperatures, but this season probably had a longer period of consistently high temperatures, coupled with the dry conditions.
“A drought is a drought and they are all about the same. I don’t know that this one is any worse than previous ones,” he said.

9/30/2010