USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $80.91 per cwt., down $7.94 from the previous Thursday, but still $24.71 higher than a year ago. Hams were higher this week, but loins, butts and bellies were lower.

Fresh pork bellies are an incredible $46.92 per cwt. lower than last week. This is by far the biggest one-week price drop since 1997, when my data series begins. Bellies lost a fraction over one-third of their value in the last seven calendar days. Pork belly prices are down 41 percent from three weeks ago. The end of summer usually means lower belly prices; rarely is the drop this dramatic.

The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $71.35 per cwt., $4.80 lower than the previous Friday. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern Corn Belt $71.01, western Corn Belt $72.67, and Iowa-Minnesota $72.86 per cwt. The live hog prices Friday topped at $51.50 at Sioux Falls and $51 per cwt. at Peoria. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $52.75 per cwt., $2.25 lower than the previous Friday.
This week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.253 million head, up 4.5 percent from the week before but down 1.7 percent compared to slaughter during the same week last year. This is the closest hog slaughter has been to the year-earlier level since mid July.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Sept. 25 was 200 pounds, up 1 pound from the week before and up one pound from a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights last week averaged 270.7 pounds, up 0.9 pounds from the week before and 2.3 pounds heavier than a year earlier.

Corn prices have been highly volatile lately. Last Friday corn futures were down the 30 cent limit; today they are up the 30 cent limit. Today’s October crop report raised the estimate of 2010 corn acres planted and harvested by 2.58 million acres, but USDA cut their forecast of 2010 corn production by 496 million bushels with the estimated yield now at 155.8 bushels per acre, down 6.7 bushels per acre from last month’s forecast. USDA’s estimate of beginning stocks is up 322 million bushels from a month ago, but their estimate of ending stocks on Aug. 31, 2011 is only 902 million bushels, down 214 million bushels from last month’s forecast and the lowest ending stocks since 1997. USDA now forecasts an average farm price for this year’s corn crop of $5 per bushel plus or minus 40 cents. The current record price is $4.20 for the 2007 crop. $5 corn should push the breakeven price of barrows and gilts close to $60 per cwt. live or $80 per cwt. carcass.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.