Ever since the new crop corn hit the feed bins, hog slaughter weights have been heavy. The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Nov. 27 was a record 206 pounds, one pound heavier than the previous week and 5 pounds heavier than a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 275.6 pounds, up 0.6 pounds from the week before and up 5.7 pounds compared to a year earlier.

USDA has revised upward their forecast of meat production in both 2010 and 2011. They are now estimating 2010 red meat and poultry production at 91.6 billion pounds. That is up 0.8 percent from 2009 and up 0.6 percent from their November estimate. Pork production is expected to be down 2.9 percent this year and turkey production down 0.9 percent. But, 2010 beef production is expected to be up 0.9 percent and broiler production up 3.4 percent compared to last year.

For 2011, USDA is forecasting beef production to decline by 2.5 percent and turkey production to drop 0.9 percent again. Pork production is forecast to increase by 1.1 percent with broiler production up 1.3 percent. Total red meat and poultry production in 2011 is forecast to equal this year’s level.

USDA is forecasting the average live weight price of barrows and gilts to be close to $54.90 per cwt. this year and around $55 per cwt. in 2011.

Hog prices ended the week even with the week before. The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $65.23 per cwt., up 4 cents from the previous Friday. The average carcass price this morning in the eastern Corn Belt was $65.12 per cwt. Both the western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $66.63 per cwt. this morning. The top live hog price Friday at Sioux Falls was $49 per cwt. The top at Zumbrota was $46 and Peoria’s top was $47.50 per cwt. The interior Missouri live top Friday was $46 per cwt., down $1.50 from last Friday.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $78.53 per cwt., up 64 cents from the previous Thursday. Hams were lower this week while loins and butts were higher, belly prices were unchanged.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.257 million head this week, down 3.1 percent from the week before but up 1.1 percent compared to the same week last year. This is the eighth consecutive week with slaughter above the year-ago level. Pork production is down 3.1 percent for the year, but it has been above year-ago for each of the last eight weeks.

The December lean hog futures contract ended the week at $69.45 per cwt., up 18 cents from the previous Friday. The February contract ended the week at $75.15 per cwt. and April settled at $79. December corn futures ended the week at $5.60’2 per bushel, up 1 cent from the previous Friday.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.