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| Taking a look at the crystal ball |
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It has become a tradition of sorts that, at the beginning of each year, I write a column outlining some of the things that are likely to impact our food and fiber industry in the next 12 months. This year I also decided to look a little deeper into the crystal ball and make a few predictions that go beyond 2011.
Even though the New Year has just begun, we can already pick out the top farm story of the year. It will be the farm bill. Congress will begin work this month and continue until a bill is passed that will set the direction for U.S. agricultural policy for the next four years. Some of the key issues in this year’s bill will be the same as last time around, but there will be a few new twists. For example, the discussion of a safety net for farmers will take on a different tone with corn at $6 and soybeans at $13. For the first time, foodies will be a factor. The local, niche, organic and specialty food forces will all be demanding to be recognized in the farm bill. The debate will also involve the USDA, which sees the farm bill as a rural development vehicle, and Congress, which sees the bill as dealing with production agriculture. In 2010, a war of words erupted between members of Congress and Secretary of Ag Tom Vilsack over this issue. The power shift in Washington may only serve to sharpen this issue.
Ethanol will continue to be a political and, increasingly, legal hot potato. Anti-ethanol forces, failing on Capitol Hill, will increasingly turn to the courts.
Meanwhile, the EPA will move with molasses-like speed to implement rules that increase the amount of renewable fuel in our gas tanks. Also, look for the food versus fuel debate to resurface as food prices rise.
Food prices will be a top story in 2011. With the U.S. economy still sluggish and unemployment staying high, hikes in retail food prices will become a concern for consumers and a story for the media. More and more, American consumers see cheap food as an entitlement. As retail food prices rise, so will consumer tempers. Lawmakers with hopes for 2012 will be eager to appease constituents.
It is also safe to say there will be food recalls. New power granted to the FDA to mandate food recalls will help the government respond faster to these issues. Food safety will continue to be a concern of the public. Farmers and the food processing industry will be under greater pressure to have accurate traceability systems to track food products from the farm to the kitchen. Either the industry must develop these systems, or the government will.
On the subject of big government, 2011 will see even more regulations pouring out of Washington. The EPA and FDA will lead the assault with the Justice, Homeland Security, Transportation, and Agriculture departments close behind. This poses, in my opinion, the greatest threat to American agriculture. Congress has lost control of these regulatory agencies, and the White House has given these unaccountable bureaucrats the green light.
The animal rights movement will not be taking off work in 2011. HSUS, PETA, and others will be busy raising millions of dollars to help themselves rather than animals. HSUS will likely try and build on the success of their Puppy Mill ballot issue in Missouri. Expect more such ballot box battles in other states.
Things that could happen beyond 2011:
In 2012, after completing his second term as governor, Mitch Daniels will be appointed to head the Federal Reserve Board, where he will begin to bring sanity back to U.S. monetary policy.
The Republicans will capture the White House in 2012, and outgoing Indiana Lt. Governor Becky Skillman will be named Secretary of Agriculture.
In 2015, the Kellogg Company will develop a breakfast cereal made from DDGs. This will create a new revenue stream for ethanol companies.
Purdue University’s animal science department will discover that hogs and chickens have naturally occurring agoraphobia, the fear of the outdoors. This discovery will put an end to the free-range poultry industry and will lead animal rights groups to support confined feeding operations.
In 2016, the USDA will outsource all crop production estimates to Google. They will use the Google Earth program to accurately estimate yields via satellite.
In 2017, Facebook will enter the cell phone business. The Face phone will become quite popular since it will only receive calls from those people on your friends list.
Well, there you are – another year’s worth of prognostications. Save this column, and at the end of the year pull it out and see how I did.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication. |
| 1/5/2011 |
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