By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

WASHINGTON, D.C. — At 41 million planted, U.S. winter wheat acres are expected to be 10 percent higher than for 2010, according to last week’s report from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). But these are still 5 percent fewer acres than planted in 2008.

Growers in all states in the Farm World area are expected to have increased their wheat planting this winter; in fact, it’s estimated Illinois farmers seeded more than twice as much land as in late 2009, up from 330,000 to 740,000 acres.

The same agency reported that on-farm stocks of corn and soybeans as of Dec. 1, 2010, were down a good measure from one year previous – 15 percent less corn and 11 percent fewer soybeans – though off-farm stocks of each were up 7 percent.

Use of corn between September and November, at 4.11 billion bushels, was up 6.5 percent during the same period in 2009, and soybean disappearance was up 4 percent, at 1.2 billion bushels. According to the same report, overall U.S. corn stocks were down 8 percent from the year previous, and soybeans, down 3 percent.

Estimates for corn and soybeans harvested in 2010 didn’t vary much between Nov. 1 and Dec. 1. At 12.4 billion bushels, corn is down 5.3 percent from its record high production in 2009; at more than 3.3 billion bushels, this was the second-largest soy harvest on record, its largest also set in 2009.
Yield for both was off from 2009, too – almost 12 bushels per acre for corn, but only one-half bushel for soy.

Corn yield was off greatly from 2009 figures in all Farm World states except Michigan, where it increased from 148 to 150 bushels per acre in 2010. The drops from 2009 to last year were as follows: Illinois, down from 174 to 157; Indiana, 171 to 157; Iowa, 182 to 165; Ohio, 174 to 163; Kentucky, 165 to 124; and Tennessee, 148 to 117.

Correspondingly, production was also down in those six states (Michigan’s went up).

Soybean yield went up in Illinois and Michigan from 2009 to 2010, by 5.5 and 3.5 bushels per acre (to 51.5 and 43.5), respectively. In Iowa, it held steady at 51. Yield went down in the other four states: Indiana by 0.5 bushel to 48.5; Ohio, from 49 to 48; Kentucky, 48 to 34; and Tennessee, 45 to 31.

Above-average temperatures and soil conditions that were less than ideal late in the summer contributed to lower corn yields across much of the eastern Corn Belt, according to NASS experts. Hot, dry weather during blooming and pod development lowered some soy yields, as well.

The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) is projecting 100 million bushels more corn used for ethanol this month, which offsets its lower estimate for feed use. That report also projects ending corn stocks for 2010-11 at 745 million bushels, putting them at less than half the volume projected this time last year for 2009-10. The AMS noted the ratio of stocks to projected use is only 5.5 percent – the lowest in 15 years.

For soybeans, the AMS is still projecting a record export of 1.59 billion bushels, and 2010-11 ending stocks of 140 million bushels, which is down drastically from the 245 million it projected this time last year for 2009-10.
The price season-average range for soybeans is projected at $11.20-$12.20 per bushel, up from the $8.90-$10.40 the AMS predicted this time last year. For corn, this range is $4.90-$5.70, compared to the $3.40-$4 projected last January.