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Hog prices collapsed last week after crisis in Japan

Pork trade started 2011 on a strong note. U.S. pork exports during January totaled 369 million pounds, up 54 million pounds (17 percent) compared to January 2010. Japan, South Korea and China each purchased at least 19 million pounds more U.S. pork in January than 12 months earlier.

U.S. pork imports during January totaled 64 million pounds, up 48,000 pounds (0.1 percent) compared to a year earlier.

In January, the U.S. exported 19.5 percent of our pork production. Imports equaled 3.4 percent of production. U.S. per capita pork supply in January was down 1.6 percent from a year earlier.

Hog imports during January totaled 481,932 head, down 3.6 percent compared to January 2010.

Hog prices rose steadily this week, then collapsed on Friday. The net result was Friday’s hog prices were little different than seven days earlier.
The sudden drop is likely due to the news about the big earthquake and tsunami in Japan. The Japanese are the biggest foreign buyers for U.S. pork, so their natural disaster also may become a problem for U.S. pork exports.
The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $79.04 per cwt., down 37 cents from the previous Friday. This morning’s western Corn Belt carcass prices averaged $77.37 per cwt., the same as in Iowa-Minnesota.

This morning (Friday, March 11) the eastern Corn Belt averaged $81.14 per cwt. The top live hog price Friday at Zumbrota, Minn. was $56 per cwt. Peoria topped out at $57.50 per cwt. this morning.

The interior Missouri live top Friday was $58.50 per cwt., up 50 cents from the previous Friday.

USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated pork cutout value was $91.12 per cwt., up 73 cents from the previous Thursday. Loins, bellies and butts were higher this week. Hams were lower. Pork belly prices are the highest since September.
The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Feb. 26 was 206 pounds, up 1 pound from the previous week and 6 pounds heavier than a year ago. Iowa-Minnesota live weights for barrows and gilts last week averaged 272.6 pounds, down 1.6 pounds from the week before, but up 3.3 pounds compared to a year earlier. Hog weights have been above year-ago for the last 24 weeks.

Hog slaughter totaled 2.154 million head this week, up 0.7 percent from the week before and up 0.9 percent compared to the same week last year.
The April lean hog futures contract ended the week at $88 per cwt., down 47 cents from the previous Friday. The May contract ended the week at $98.30 per cwt. June hogs settled at $99.50. Earlier this year, we had four contract months above $100. Now none are.

March corn futures ended the week at $6.59 per bushel, down 62 cents from the week before. The May corn contract settled at $6.64 per bushel down 64 cents from a week earlier. July settled at $6.71.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.

3/17/2011