By MICHELE F. MIHALJEVICH
Indiana Correspondent

FORT WAYNE, Ind. — By 2020, far fewer dairy farms will supply the nation with milk, but the herds at those operations will be much larger. At the same time, food safety will become even more important to the American consumer, as will agriculture’s image.

Those were a few of the predictions made by Mike Hutjens during a presentation at the 20th Tri-State Dairy Nutrition Conference in Fort Wayne. Hutjens, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois, took a look at how the dairy industry was, is and possibly will be during his April 19 speech.

The nation could lose more than 90,000 dairy farms from 2000-20, he stated. In 2000, there were more than 105,000 dairy operations nationwide, but that number is expected to drop to 14,721 in nine years. In 2010, there were nearly 46,000.

Dairy operations will have bigger herds and will increase the amount of milk per cow, Hutjens said.

“In the 1970s, animal agriculture was a way of life and dairy farms were diversified. The farm was based on family labor and multiple generations were involved. Computer applications were just beginning,” he said.

Today, with feed and other operational costs rising, producers are concerned about the “profit potential and how you can make a buck,” he noted. “Producers work with more alternative labor sources, and there’s an emphasis on cow longevity.”

Dairy farmers are also interested in robotic milking and some are processing milk on their own farms, he explained, adding that reducing dairy’s carbon footprint continues to be important to consumers. By 2020, more producers will either control processing or more milk will be processed on the farm, he predicted.
“The idea of vertical integration will become more important as producers try to take more control of their product from the farm to the plate,” he added. “But profit margins will be squeezed. And the image of the industry in the public eye will continue to be a concern for the industry, as consumers and activists will monitor the industry and how it deals with the environment and animal care.”
Rations will be forage and byproduct-based, as feed will get off the human plate and away from corn and soybeans, he said.

“There will be emphasis on precision feeding to provide a consistent ration and a consistent flow of nutrients through the rumen and digestive tract. Genomic engineering, which might allow scientists to turn off a specific gene, or reduce genes that produce milk fat, will be more important.”

The role of extension agents could change as well, as there may be a shift from the county to a more regional or statewide focus.

The death rate in dairy calves isn’t where the industry would like it to be, said Al Kertz, of Milk Specialties Global Animal Nutrition. In 1991, the death rate in pre-weaned calves was 8.4 percent, and in 2002, it was 8.7-10.5 percent, he noted.

“The calf is the most efficient animal on the dairy farm and we should feed and manage them accordingly. You shouldn’t skimp on those feed costs,” he explained.

Feeding clean colostrum is important to the health of pre-weaned calves, Kertz explained. For optimal colostrum, producers should sanitize their collection, storage and feeding equipment, and refrigerate it properly or freeze it.
“We’ve got to do a better job with our customers to get them to understand this,” he noted. Animal height should also be considered by producers, as “the importance of height as a predictor of future milk is underestimated and should be stressed more in replacement heifers,” Kertz stated.

Fifty percent of growth occurs during the first six months of life, while 25 percent occurs from seven to 12 months, and 25 percent occurs in the second year, he said.