By STEVE BINDER
Illinois Correspondent

URBANA, Ill. — A leading agronomist with the University of Illinois remains hopeful the Midwest can salvage a reasonably good corn crop this season, but the next two to three weeks of weather conditions are critical.

Despite record rainfall through most of April and record flood levels along the Mississippi and Ohio rivers, agronomist Emerson Nafziger said late last week he hopes farmers will still get a shot at getting corn in the ground before the end of the month. But, he cautioned, that will all depend on Mother Nature.
The long-term forecast for the Midwest through May 19 calls for above-average precipitation, said National Weather Service forecaster Steve Rodriguez, based in Chicago. That 8- to 14-day advance forecast covers most of the Eastern Corn Belt, including northern portions of Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Key to watch is the progress in North Dakota and South Dakota in the next two weeks, Nafziger said. Those states, through May 4, only had 1 percent of its corn crop planted.

For the United States, about 11 percent of the crop was planted through May 1; the five-year average for the same date is about 40 percent, Nafziger said.
“This is my 30th season of closely watching the corn crop in Illinois,” said Nafziger. “Two years ago, in 2009, we said we were in big trouble, and got off to a very late start, but we still produced a good late crop.
“We can still produce a very good late crop this year, but it won’t be easy. The next two to three weeks are critical.”

If farmers can get enough of a dry spell and get into fields, planting can be completed in a few days, which leaves enough growing-degree days to allow for corn to mature without too many complications.

The agronomist recommends farmers remain patient, and be ready to capitalize on a dry break in the weather. He said he wouldn’t recommend considering changing seeds to a more northern-based hybrid, nor does he recommend farmers decide to switch now to soybeans.

“There’s still some time there, and with beans, we know we can go into June,” Nafziger said.

Any lowering of corn production estimates will drive futures prices higher, he said, so the value of what crop already has been planted becomes even more significant. “The cooler temperatures and the wet weather have us concerned about the crop that already is in the ground,” Nafziger said.
The demand for corn worldwide will continue to increase, with five billion bushels required this year for ethanol production per federal regulations in the U.S., and the growing need for grain in China, Japan and other countries, he added.