By TIM THORNBERRY
Kentucky Correspondent

LEXINGTON, Ky. — From winter blizzards to spring flooding to scorching summer heat, this year’s weather has been extreme, and has created a nightmare for farmers looking to plant.

In fact, USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates released last week note changes in estimated crop production, especially with corn because of delayed planting caused by adverse weather conditions in many parts of the country. The report stated “corn planted area for 2011-12 is lowered 1.5 million acres from March intentions to 90.7 million acres.

“Planting delays through early June in the Eastern Corn Belt and northern Plains are expected to reduce planted area, more than offsetting likely gains in the Western Corn Belt and central Plains where planting was ahead of normal by mid-May.”

It also noted production is projected at 13.2 billion bushels, down 305 million from last month – but the good news is that’s still a record, up 753 million from 2010-11.

Todd Davis, crops economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation, said there is no doubt the wild weather year is impacting all the crops farmers produce.

“Drought and floods are taking their toll on cotton, corn, wheat and other crops, and USDA’s newest numbers demonstrate just that,” he said.
Davis also said corn inventories are still tight and farmers are hoping weather will cooperate so there will be enough production to increase supplies to a more comfortable level.

“This is a very, very tight stocks situation, representing just 19 days of supply. We clearly need a big crop this year to build our supply reservoir,” he said. “Farmers can still make up for planting delays brought on by flooding, but they clearly need cooperative weather in July and August to make a good corn crop.”

In Kentucky a stretch of hot, dry weather has allowed corn producers to catch up but soybean and burley tobacco planting is still considerably off last year’s mark. University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture meteorologist Tom Priddy said the state was coming out of one of the wettest April and May periods ever.

“Record flooding occurred along the Ohio River,” he said. “The station at New Madrid and Cairo recorded the highest crest in history, while Paducah recorded its second-highest crest. Flooding was not just held to river basins; fields were saturated from early April through late May all across the state.”
Those floods have given way to August-like heat in early June, causing concern for livestock.

“These high temperatures were about 10 degrees warmer than the previous week’s highs,” Priddy said. “Combined with the moist air from the Gulf of Mexico Kentucky has been experiencing this spring, the end result has been hot and muggy conditions. This has caused livestock heat stress to reach the danger category earlier in the year than normal.”

That heat is something that can cause livestock producers, especially cattle, big bucks. Information from the USDA estimates that over the past 10 years, several heat events in the Midwest have cost the cattle industry alone more than $75 million.

A similar wet spring followed by a hot, dry summer pattern fell across the region last year, which resulted in a severe drought.

While many producers fear the same is happening now, Priddy said the longer-term forecast models are not indicating that.

“The La Niña in the equatorial Pacific that caused the very wet weather we’ve had has transitioned to near-normal temperatures (there) and so with that, we would expect to go back to a more normal weather pattern,” he said.
According to information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), “La Niña is defined as cooler than normal sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean that impact global weather patterns. La Niña conditions recur every few years and can persist for as long as two years.”

That near-normal pattern Priddy spoke of would include timely rains and more tolerable temperatures. He said the warmth should continue for the next few weeks with a chance of above-normal precipitation, but the 90-day outlook is forecasting below normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall.
“I see that as a favorable outlook in that this heat that we are having, we should see some relief,” he said. “Those outlooks, I think are positive for Kentucky.”

One thing to consider, however, when it comes to the weather is that hurricane season has officially started and while Kentucky is far from the ocean, rain from tropical fronts can cause problems. Priddy pointed out the NOAA is forecasting an above-normal number of tropical storms for the coming season.

The remnants of those storms, particularly the ones in the Gulf of Mexico, have the potential to come up the Mississippi River, stall over the area and dump a tremendous amount of rain here, he explained.