By DOUG SCHMITZ
Iowa Correspondent

DES MOINES, Iowa — Despite an uncertain financial future because of the dismal economy, U.S. pork producers have maintained the breeding herd size over the past year, according to Chris Hurt, a Purdue University agricultural economist.

“We have somewhat more inventory,” said Hurt, noting swine weights may increase in the coming months with the recent drop in crop and feed prices.
Released late last month, the USDA’s June 1 Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed the breeding inventory was 5.8 million head, up slightly from last year and up 2 percent from March 1. But Hurt said the breeding herd size was a “cautious position” that was expected, “given the wide swings in both hog and feed prices evident this spring.”

As a result, “little change should be expected in the hog herd until the feed supply situation is better known this fall,” he said in a June 24 teleconference, which included Daniel Vaught, analyst with Vaught Future Insights in Altus, Ark., and Jim Long, president and CEO of Genesus Genetics in Manitoba, Canada.

The report said the U.S. hog and pig inventory last month totaled 65 million head, up 1 percent from June 1, 2010. While Iowa once again led the nation in overall hog numbers, totaling 19.8 million hogs and pigs (up 5 percent from both a year ago and from March 1), North Carolina continued to lead in total breeding herds.

“The national breeding herd has declined 5 percent in the past three years, and North Carolina alone accounts for about half of that total,” Hurt said. “The smaller sow herd remains very productive; however, as the number of pigs per litter reached 10 pigs for the first time ever this spring, this resulted in the number of market hogs being up by nearly 1 percent over levels of a year earlier.”

Steve Meyer of Paragon Economics in Des Moines said the only substantial difference between actual and expected inventories was the 120-179-pound category of market hogs, which totaled 59.2 million head, up 1 percent from 2010 and up 2 percent from March.

“The USDA estimated that number at 12.424 million head, 3.3 percent larger than last year; analysts expected the number to be 1 percent larger than last year,” he said.

In fact, since the World Pork Expo last month in Des Moines, market hogs have actually jumped 15 cents a pound and corn has dropped more than $1 a bushel, Long said. “The cash price margin swing over $30 per head,” he said. “This is an improvement we all need.”

The March-May 2011 pig crop, at 28.9 million head, was up slightly from 2010 but down 1 percent from 2009, with sows farrowed during this same period totaling 2.88 million head, down 2 percent from 2010 and down 5 percent from 2009, the report added.

In addition, U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.867 million head during the June-August quarter, down 3 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2010 and down 3 percent from 2009. September-November farrowings are projected at 2.848 million head, down 1 percent from 2010 and 2 percent from 2009.

The report added the average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.03 for the March-May 2011 period, compared to 9.81 last year, with pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranging from 7.5 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs to 10.1 for operations with more than 5,000 swine. The number of contract hogs on operations over 5,000 head totaled 45 percent, up from 44 percent on June 1, 2010, the report said.