By TIM THORNBERRY Kentucky Correspondent
FRANKFORT, Ky. — While the economy continues to be unstable, the agriculture industry continues to show its strength, as evident in the information released last month by the USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).
The data of final 2010 cash receipts once again showed growth in many ag sectors. Kentucky farmers were no exception when it came to increases, overall: The ERS data indicate state cash receipts totaled more than $4.44 billion last year, up 2.2 percent over 2009 numbers and the third-highest total on record.
Kentucky Agriculture Commissioner Richie Farmer applauded producers for their efforts, something he has become accustomed to doing over the last few years.
“Kentucky farmers continued to excel in 2010 despite a late-summer drought and a sluggish national economy,” he said. “This is the sixth time in the past seven years that Kentucky farm cash receipts have crossed the $4 billion mark. “That says a lot about the skill, determination and work ethic of Kentucky’s farmers. It also says the ‘Kentucky Proud’ program is increasing Kentucky farm income.” For the second year in a row, the poultry industry led the state with more than $950 million in receipts, an increase of more than 4.5 percent. Horses were number two at $700 million, and cattle and calves came in at $615.5 million. Those numbers were significant in that the poultry industry has become the dominant force in Kentucky agriculture in a relatively short period.
The cattle industry is one of the biggest in the country, with a 27 percent increase over 2009, but the state’s horse industry – arguably for what Kentucky is most recognized – slipped again, by 10 percent over 2009 levels. This marks a $400 million drop over the last three years for the equine industry.
In crop income, corn came out on top at $603.5 million, an increase of 4.2 percent over two years ago. Soybeans were next with $583 million, up just over 4 percent, and tobacco came in a distant third with $331 million, down more than 13 percent.
The continued decrease in the once-king of crops in Kentucky is no surprise as tobacco markets continue to be volatile and the number of producers growing it keeps dropping.
Overall, the livestock sector represented $2.6 billion of 2010 cash receipts, an increase of nearly 7 percent from 2009, while crops came in at $1.84 billion, a decline of 3.7 percent. At the end of every year University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture experts release an agricultural outlook for the current year’s estimates and projections for the coming year. Craig Infanger, extension professor in the UK Department of Agricultural Economics, said figures announce last December was very close. Those estimates placed cash receipts for 2010 between $4.4 billion-$4.7 billion but, more importantly, also an outlook of possibly $5 billion for 2011. “Despite some weather issues, there’s every chance to have a very strong year for cash receipts,” Infanger said of 2011. The price of corn and soybeans will help with that outlook, he added.
“Who can believe these corn and soybean prices? We are going to have very strong prices on the crop side, except for tobacco. We’ve got very good dairy prices, very good hog prices and very good cattle prices,” Infanger said.
Incidentally, dairy products and hog receipts for 2010 came in at $204 million and $107.2 million, respectively. Both figures represent large increases in those sectors over 2009 numbers; 23 percent for dairy and nearly 47 percent for hogs.
Infanger said it is still too early to tell whether Kentucky producers will see that $5 billion for 2011 but he thinks it’s possible to make it to the $4.7 billion mark, which would tie the record.
While large cash receipt numbers may lead those not in the ag industry to think farmers are getting rich, that is far from reality for most. Input prices, including feed and fuel, are extremely high which cuts deeply into their bottom lines.
The USDA, however, has released promising estimates for 2011 concerning net farm income. The agency reports the U.S. net income forecast looks to be $103.6 billion, up $24.5 billion from 2010, or an increase of 31 percent.
“All three measures of farm sector earnings (net farm income, net cash income and net value added) are forecast to rise more than 20 percent in 2011,” the report noted. “Net farm income and net cash income are both projected to exceed $100 billion for the first time in 2011.”
If these estimates hold true, this will signify the second highest inflation-adjusted value since 1973. The report also estimated that farm sector debt would decrease by nearly 2 percent in 2011. |