WASHINGTON, D.C. — While the latest report from the USDA shows increases in planted acreage for corn and soybeans, the weather continues to be a big concern to analysts.

“The acreage numbers are not as important with the weather we’re having,” said David Kohli, a market analyst with Allendale, Inc.’s Fort Wayne, Ind., branch. “The radar screen is more important than the acreage numbers.”

The estimates released Friday by the USDA show what farmers intended to plant as of June 1 – and that could have changed since then because of the weather, Kohli noted.

The USDA estimated U.S. farmers would plant 96.4 million acres of corn, up 5 percent from last year. This would be the highest planted acreage since 1937, when an estimated 97.2 acres were planted, the USDA said. Farmers expect to harvest 88.9 million acres for grain, up 6 percent from last year.

Farmers were expected to plant 76.1 million acres of soybeans, up 1 percent from last year, and the third highest amount on record. The area for harvest was an estimated 75.3 million acres, up 2 percent from last year.

For all wheat, acreage was estimated at 56 million acres, up 3 percent from last year.

In a separate report also released Friday, the USDA said corn stocks in all positions as of June 1 totaled 3.15 billion bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. Of those, 1.48 billion were stored on-farm, down 12 percent, and 1.67 billion bushels were stored off-farm, down 16 percent.

Soybeans stored in all positions totaled 667 million bushels, up 8 percent from a year ago. Soybeans stored on-farm totaled 179 million bushels, down 18 percent from last year, while off-farm, 488 million bushels were stored, up 22 percent.

Old-crop wheat stored in all positions totaled 743 million bushels, down 14 percent from a year ago. Stocks stored on-farm totaled 112 million bushels, down 14 percent. Wheat stored off-farm totaled 631 million bushels, also down 14 percent.

The market was trading higher after the reports were released on Friday, and probably half of that was because of weather conditions, said Jack Scoville, of The Price Futures Group.

“You’ve got to keep an eye on the weather,” Scoville noted. “We’re losing corn yield right now and we could start to lose soybean yield pretty soon. Corn is trying to pollinate and really isn’t getting very far. Beans are also very short in this region right now.”

If the weather stays the same, corn prices could be in the $7-$7.50 range, with soybeans about $13-$13.25, Scoville said. Soybean prices of $15 aren’t out of the question if the heat and drought conditions continue.

“If the weather doesn’t improve, the sky’s the limit,” he stated.

Chicago markets are buzzing about corn yields below 150 bushels an acre and soybeans below 40 bushels, Kohli said. “The beans are extremely resilient and can recover, but the corn can’t,” he explained.

“In Indiana, we’re looking at maybe 70 to 80 (bushels an acre) corn around Evansville and maybe 100-corn around Fort Wayne.”

The heat and dryness will continue into the first half of July, said Kyle Tapley, a senior agricultural meteorologist with MDA EarthSat Weather (CropCAST).  Later in the month and into August, more normal precipitation should return, he said.

“Even if we have normal rainfall, it won’t be enough to end the drought by any means in the Midwest,” he noted.

Tapley projected an average corn yield of 155.2 bushels an acre and production of 13.67 billion bushels. For soybeans, he projected an average yield of 41.6 bushels an acre with production slightly more than 3 billion bushels. Both numbers were recently lowered as the drought and heat continue to take their toll on crops, he said.

In Illinois, corn planted for all purposes totaled 13 million acres, up from 12.6 million last year; Indiana totaled 6.2 million, up from 5.9 million; Iowa, 14 million, down from 14.1 million; Kentucky, 1.6 million, up from 1.4 million; Michigan, 2.6 million, up from 2.5 million; Ohio, 3.9 million, up from 3.4 million; and Tennessee, 930,000 acres, up from 790,000.

For soybeans, Illinois planted 8.6 million acres, down from 8.9 million last year; Indiana, 5 million, down from 5.3 million; Iowa, 9.5 million, up from 9.4 million; Kentucky, 1.4 million, down from 1.49 million; Michigan, 2 million, up from 1.95 million; Ohio, 4.6 million, up from 4.55 million; and Tennessee, 1.3 million, up slightly from 1.29 million.

All wheat planted in Illinois totaled 660,000 acres, down from 800,000 last year; Indiana, 390,000, down from 430,000; Iowa, 25,000, up from 22,000; Kentucky, 580,000, up from 540,000; Michigan, 570,000, down from 700,000; Ohio, 570,000, down from 880,000; and Tennessee, unchanged at 420,000.