By DOUG SCHMITZ Iowa Correspondent
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Despite setbacks from last year’s severe drought and short crop, U.S. Grain Council (USGC) officials are expressing optimism over the current grain markets, saying U.S. producers and agribusinesses are “ready to rebound strong.”
“All of us understand that this is an especially challenging year for coarse grains exports due to the U.S. drought and the short crop,” Tom Sleight, USGC president and CEO, told more than 200 delegates at the USGC’s 10th International Marketing Conference and 53rd annual Membership Meeting in Charleston last month. The primary goal of the conference was to review strategies and opportunities for competing in the rapidly changing global marketplace. Sleight told delegates “now is the time to redouble the council’s efforts, with customer servicing to sustain export demand and ensure the U.S. can regain its market share next year, and with continued efforts in policy, demand building and co-product marketing.
“But all of us also know that the underlying dynamics point to rapidly rising global demand,” he said. “The weather set us back this year, but U.S. producers and agribusinesses are ready to rebound strong.”
Exports continuing strong Through the USDA’s export promotion programs, including Foreign Market Development and Market Access, “the USGC is able to implement and sustain these efforts,” Sleight added.
According to Kevin Roepke, USGC manager of global trade, from a demand perspective the USGC is pleased with how its customers are riding the volatile grain markets.
“The market is working,” Roepke said. “Our customers have adjusted and will continue to respond very well to the rising costs of inputs as they ration demand, but do not destroy it.
“As evidence of this, global corn imports are only down slightly and global corn domestic consumption is actually higher, year over year. Because of last year’s severe drought and the short U.S. crop, U.S. exports are down this year but we will rebound when yields return to trend.”
From a long-term perspective, he said end users need the security of geographic diversity to originate their feed ingredient needs in order to “grow and expand their business with confidence.
“Knowing that you have a naturally hedged position in terms of procurement locale provides end users the safety net they need for long-term expansion and risk mitigation,” he said.
Although U.S. exports are down because of the drought and short crop, Roepke said the quality of the 2012 crop is good. “The council recently released its annual Corn Harvest Quality Report, and we have shared the results with buyers and other interested parties around the world,” Roepke said.
“We will follow up later this spring with the Corn Export Cargo Quality Report, which describes the quality of the crop at the point of loading for overseas shipment,” he added. “As to destinations and sales volume, we use official data. It is what it is.” He said virtually all corn markets throughout the world have improved or have been touched in some manner, because of USGC efforts.
“From ratifying the Free Trade Agreement in Colombia to developing the dairy sector in China, to developing a modern scale beef feedlot in Morocco, the council’s trademark can be seen everywhere,” he said. “The big picture, of course, is the growth of the global middle class, the first effect of which is significant long-term demand growth for food.
“A conventional estimate is that the world needs to double food production by 2050 as consumers in emerging economies demand better diets. Producers around the world will benefit, and the council will continue to be focused on opening doors and winning markets for U.S. exporters.”
Selling in difficult markets Asked whether the USGC has lost any markets or have some that are still difficult to get into, such as selling genetically modified (GMO) crops to European countries, Roepke said the markets are always changing.
“On the supply side, we’re seeing increased competition from Ukraine, Brazil, Argentina and others,” he said. “On the demand side, more U.S. corn is being exported in value-added forms (i.e., meat, poultry, dairy, DDGs, ethanol) and the growing global middle class means that long-term demand growth will continue to be robust.”
Roepke said this plays out in complicated ways in different markets. “Acceptance of GMOs is a big issue,” he explained. “The council is working hard to improve the regulatory framework, for example, on biotech event approvals and protocols on low-level presence of not-yet-approved GMO events.
“The point is to avoid disruptions in trade while enabling growers to capture the benefits of innovations in agriculture. The pace of research and development is quickening, and the event “pipeline” is becoming more and more robust, but the approval process is bogged down in many places.”
While the European Union approval process continues to be “painfully slow,” Roepke said it routinely misses its own deadlines. “We’re also seeing increasing delays for biotech approvals in Korea that threaten our market access – and that of many of our competitors – in the future,” he said. |