DES MOINES, Iowa — Despite record high feed prices, last month’s hog numbers rose slightly from March 2012, according to experts who analyzed the March 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs report.

“The report could mark a turning point on the supply side as producers are starting to expand,” said Jim Robb, director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, Colo. “From a price standpoint, the report was slightly bearish.”

Robb joined John Nalivka, president of Sterling Marketing, Vale, Ore., and Victor Aideyan, senior risk management consultant for HISGRAIN Commodities, Inc. in London, Ontario, in a March 28 teleconference.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board in Des Moines, Iowa, the report said U.S. hogs and pigs on March 1 totaled 65.9 million head, up 1 percent from March 1, 2012, but down 1 percent from Dec. 1, 2012. Analysts forecast the pre-report range of 100.3 percent to 101.6 percent and just above the average estimate of 100.7 percent.

As the nation’s top hog-producing state, Iowa had 20.3 million hogs and pigs, despite being down slightly from December 2012 but up 3 percent from a year ago. The report said Iowa’s December 2012-February 2013 pig crop was 5.02 million head, with a total of 485,000 sows farrowed and an average litter size of 10.35 pigs per sow.

As of March 1, Iowa hog producers planned to farrow 500,000 head of sows and gilts in the March-May 2013 quarter. Farrowing intentions for the June-August 2013 period were estimated at 490,000, as of March 1.

As the nation’s leading hog producer, Iowa had 20.6 million hogs and pigs, the report said, unchanged from September 2012, but up 3 percent from 2012’s 20 million count. The report said average barrow and gilt live weight in Iowa-Minnesota a week before the report’s release was 275.7 pounds, down 1.3 pounds from a week earlier and down 0.9 pound from a year ago.

The report also stated North Carolina, the nation’s second largest hog producer, had 8.9 million head, and Minnesota, the third largest, showed 7.75 million head. In addition, it stated Indiana ’s total was 3.65 million; Ohio hog numbers were 2.13 million; Illinois’ was 4.65 million head; Michigan’s was 1.080 million; and Missouri’s was 2.75 million.

Prior to the March 28 report, analysts expected a 0.7 percent increase in market hog numbers. According to the CME Group, the USDA made some notable revisions to previously reported numbers.

“The (Sept. 1) inventory was revised up by 470,000 head, while the Dec. 1 inventory was revised by 65,000 head,” read the April 2 CME report. “The inventory of market hogs as of (March 1) was 60.077 million head, 1.6 percent larger than a year ago.

“Inventories of hogs over 180 pounds, which is basically hogs and came to market in March, were up 2.3 percent from a year ago. This is consistent with weekly hog slaughter for March, which is currently running around 2.1 percent above year-ago levels.”

The CME report stated inventories of pigs under 50 pounds were 19.426 million head, 1 percent larger than a year ago, with market hogs in the 50-120 pound category up 1.5 percent from a year ago, while hogs weighing 120-180 pounds were 2.2 percent higher than last year.

“This implies that that hog slaughter for (the second quarter) of 2013 will be larger than earlier expected,” the CME report read.

Nalivka said hog prices fell in March, with U.S. producers losing about $32 per head. “We will see some help on the grain side (in the form of increased supplies and lower prices), but that won’t be until later this year,” he said.

Nalivka predicted hog prices would return to about $80 per cwt. in the first quarter this year, to ranges of $81-$86 in the second quarter and $82-$86 in the third quarter. 

But he added feed costs could drop later this year if crop production recovers from last year’s drought-induced losses.

“The past three months, producers have been losing anywhere from $20 to $40 per head,” he said. “We anticipated larger losses, but grain prices came down and hog prices went up.”

The USDA report stated U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.83 million head, was up slightly from last year, and from the previous quarter. “Even though the breeding herd has not grown a lot, we’ve seen the herd increase through better efficiencies,” Aideyan said.

The report said U.S. market hog inventory, at 60.1 million head, was up 2 percent from last year, but down 1 percent from last quarter.

The report stated the December 2012-February 2013 pig crop, at 29 million head, was up 2 percent from 2012. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 2.88 million head, up 1 percent from 2012. The sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd.

The report added average pigs saved per litter was a record high 10.08 for the December-February period, compared to 9.97 last year. Pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranged from 7.5 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs, to 10.1 for operations with more than 5,000 hogs and pigs.

The report stated U.S. hog producers intend to have 2.96 million sows farrow during the March-May 2013 quarter, down 1 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period in 2012, but up 1 percent from 2011. Intended farrowings for June-August 2013, at 2.91 million sows, are down 1 percent from 2012 and down 1 percent from 2011.

The total number of hogs under contract owned by operations with more than 5,000 head but raised by contractors accounted for 47 percent of the total U.S. hog inventory, unchanged from last year, the report read.

According to the Hog Outlook report by University of Missouri agricultural economists Ron Plain and Scott Brown, although the futures markets were closed for Good Friday, the March 28 close for the April lean hog futures contract was $80.60 per cwt., up $2.55 from the previous Friday. May hog futures ended March 29 at $89.55 per cwt., June at $91.075 and July at $91.05.

The CME report stated “a larger than expected hog inventory and lower corn prices should help contain pork price inflation for the balance of 2013 and in 2014.”