GIBRALTAR ISLAND, Ohio — Lake Erie’s 2013 algal bloom will be significant enough that people will be able to see it, according to a July 2 forecast. It will be only about a fifth the size of the record-setting 2011 bloom, but twice as large as last year’s.

“You can plan your activities around a bloom of this scale,” said Dr. Richard Stumpf, oceanographer at the National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS).

Stumpf recommended those interested in getting updates about harmful algal blooms (HABs) in Lake Erie subscribe to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Harmful Algal Blooms in Lake Erie bulletin, which offers weekly updates of bloom locations and impacts.

The NCCOS, with representatives from NOAA, Heidelberg University, the Ohio Environmental Protection Agency, the Lake Erie Commission and Ohio Sea Grant, issued the forecast. This was the second year for it, and last year’s was accurate. NOAA also used information from the University of Toledo.

“It is not likely that this bloom will be very visible in the Central Basin of Lake of Erie, the area east of Sandusky,” said Dr. Jeffrey Reutter, director of Ohio State University’s Ohio Sea Grant and Stone Laboratory. “But it is likely that people will see it in the Western Basin from the islands westward – it will not cover the entire Western Basin. It will be most severe within Maumee Bay and Sandusky Bay.”

Typically the bloom occurs in late August through early October, he said. Depending on what the wind is doing, the bloom would be moving around within the Western Basin.

“The bloom is driven by water currents that move from west to east, but because these blooms typically float at the surface,” he said, “when the water is calm they tend to be moved around by the wind and the water mass.”

The hope is the forecast will help people who are planning a trip to the region – more than a million do each year, Reutter said. Charter captains can check the NOAA’s weekly report to help keep customers away from blooms.

“The forecast used a past history of blooms, which have been measurable for 12 years,” Reutter said. “The most important factor in determining the significance of the bloom is the amount of phosphorous that flows into Lake Erie from the Maumee River during the period of 1 March to 30 June each year. It is driven predominantly by the amount of rainfall.”

The only way to change that is to change farming practices and do it in a way that doesn’t reduce agricultural production but keeps the phosphorous on the field, Reutter said. There are other sources, but he said agriculture is the largest.

The agricultural component, depending on the watershed, can be as much as about 80 percent, Reutter added. There are 4.5 million acres of agricultural land in the Maumee watershed.

“The farmers are not being singled out,” said Reutter, who noted efforts area farmers have made to reduce nutrient loading. “However, the amount of reduction we need to either greatly reduce or eliminate the harmful algal bloom problem is about a 40 percent reduction in phosphorous. That is a significant reduction.”