CLEGHORN, Iowa — Despite Iowa Soybean Assoc. (ISA) leaders not expecting a bumper crop this harvest season because of adverse weather this spring and summer, the Sept. 11 USDA Crop Production report is forecasting the state’s soybean crop to hit an eight-year high.

“In my part of Iowa, the crop looks good, but I am not certain it will be one of the best we have raised,” said Tom Oswald, ISA president and Cleghorn grower. “I expect our crop to be above average but feel the overall wet, cloudy and cool conditions have taken the top end off of our yield potential.”

Despite severe weather in July that brought torrential rains, tornadoes and hail, which damaged cropland in many counties across the state, the June 30 USDA Acreage Report stated Iowa farmers planted an estimated record-breaking 10.1 million acres of soybeans, 500,000 more than projected in March.

As a result, the Sept. 11 report stated Iowa farmers will harvest an estimated 512 million bushels, up 10 million from August estimates – with the average yield estimated at 51 bushels per acre, up 1 bushel from last month. But projecting yields is difficult, especially when harvest season hasn’t even officially started, said Kirk Leeds, ISA CEO. “I suspect soybean yields are going to be even more variable this year,” he said, “depending on late-season stress brought about by wet conditions.”

Nationally, the report projected record soybean production at 3.91 billion bushels, up 3 percent from the August forecast. If realized, the crop will exceed the largest in a decade by more than 500 million bushels, with yields nationwide projected at 46.6 bushels per acre.

While a new high, Leeds said the primary reason for “bin-busting production” across the country is a substantial increase in harvested acres at 84.4 million, up 11 percent from last year. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 475 million bushels, which would be the highest since 2006-07.

With soybean prices plummeting in recent months in anticipation of a bumper crop, Grant Kimberley, ISA market development director and newly-appointed executive director of the Iowa Biodiesel Board, said “that will create buying opportunities, which may strengthen prices.”

He said China and other countries purchased more than 800,000 tons of U.S. soybeans last week, according to the USDA. “We have seen strong global demand recently. Given the U.S. Soy Global Trade Exchange conference is taking place last week in Milwaukee, we anticipate demand will continue to gain momentum.”

Moreover, several soybean purchasing contracts are expected to be signed between Chinese buyers and U.S. exporters for the next marketing year at a signing ceremony during the conference, according to industry officials.

Kimberley said that coincides with comments Chinese buyers made during a trade mission in July, when they predicted the nation would import 75 million metric tons, which is 1 million more than the latest USDA estimate. “These recent projected commitments are probably a result of how these prices are stimulating additional demand that hasn’t been accounted for,” he explained.

According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, also released Sept. 11, U.S. soybean export projections were raised 25 million bushels to 1.7 billion for the upcoming marketing year because of increased supplies.

What’s more, the domestic soybean crush was raised 15 million bushels to a record 1.77 billion, mostly on increased soybean meal exports, with the U.S. season-average soybean price projected at $9-$11 per bushel – down 35 cents on both ends of the range, according to the WASDE report.