KANSAS CITY, Mo. — U.S. milk production in the 23 major dairy states last month totaled 15.5 billion pounds, up 4.1 percent from September 2013, which has triggered a decline in milk prices, according to the USDA’s September Milk Production Report released Oct. 20. 

“While a large increase in production was expected, an increase as much as 4 percent is rare,” Elvin Hollon, director of corporate marketing and economic analysis for Dairy Farmers of America in Kansas City, Mo., said.

The report stated milk production per cow in the 23 major U.S. dairy states averaged 1,804 pounds for September, 56 pounds above September 2013, which is the highest production per cow for the month since the 23-state series began in 2003.

“We can attribute the rise over last year in part to a comparison with a weak trend in 2013,” Hollon added, “but the momentum for milk production has been building as producers are steadily increasing their herds.”

The report also noted August-revised production at 16.2 billion pounds was up 2.6 percent from August 2013, with the August revision representing a decrease of 3 million pounds, or less than 0.1 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate.

“Milk cow numbers only increased 2,000 head from August and were 0.6 percent higher than a year ago,” said Bob Cropp, professor emeritus of agricultural economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who analyzed the report. “But, milk per cow was much higher, at 3.4 percent above September a year ago.”

The report added the number of milk cows on farms in the 23 major dairy states was 8.59 million head, 78,000 more than September 2013, and 4,000 more than August 2014.

Of the 23 major dairy states, from September 2013, Arizona is up 6.5 percent; California is up 2.9; Colorado is up 10.8; Florida is up 5.5; Idaho is up 3.4; Illinois is down 0.7; Indiana is up 4.6; Iowa is up 2.8; Kansas is up 9.2; Michigan is up 6.9; and Minnesota is up 1.5.

Moreover, New Mexico is up 3.4 percent; New York is up 4.5; Ohio is up 2.4; Oregon is up 1.5; Pennsylvania is up 3.5; South Dakota is up 3.6; Texas is up 9.6; Utah is up 7.8; Vermont is up 3.9; Virginia is up 2.9; Washington is up 5.5; and Wisconsin is up 3.2.

In addition, U.S. milk production during the July-September quarter totaled 51.1 billion pounds, up 3.5 percent from the same quarter last year. The average number of milk cows during the quarter reached 9.27 million head, 15,000 head more than the April-June quarter and 44,000 head more than the same period last year.

Cropp said “higher U.S. milk production, slowing of dairy exports and higher dairy imports are pushing down milk prices.” He added dairy product prices have “declined considerably from where they were back in September, with butter prices leading the way.”

He said the average U.S. milk price for the year could average $3 to as much $5 lower than this year, with some analysts forecasting milk prices “even lower than this, which is possible.”

“We know that prices are very sensitive to rather small changes in milk production, domestic sales and exports,” he said. “These factors can change as we move through next year and significantly impact milk prices.”

To view the full report, visit www.usda. gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/mkpr10 14.pdf