By STAN MADDUX

Indiana Correspondent

BLOOMINGTON, Ill. — If President Barack Obama is successful in easing longstanding trade sanctions against Cuba, there could be a benefit for farmers in the United States, especially in the Midwest and South, from selling more food to a country where agriculture is known more for sugar and tobacco.

“Food has been one of those areas that Cuba has had difficulty producing themselves,” said Chris Hurt, an economist in agriculture from Purdue University.

Among the groups applauding the President’s announcement is the Illinois Soybean Assoc. (ISA), already partnering with the Illinois Cuba Working Group (ICWG) to get more grain from the state into the country, just 90 miles from the U.S. mainland.

Duane Dahlman, chair of the Marketing Committee for the ISA, said preliminary figures show an initial impact of more than $20 million annually on agriculture in Illinois from loosening trade restrictions as specified by Obama. He described the boost as somewhat low, but said any benefit is a plus for farmers – and if trade restrictions are lifted even more as some decision-makers have urged, then the upside is even greater.

The total potential of establishing stronger ties with Cuba is difficult to predict because how far lifting of trade barriers will go is not known, and there’s discussion in Congress about trying to block opening the doors wider for trade with the still-communist country.

“That’s going to be one of those ‘wait-and-sees,’” said Dahlman.

Already, more Illinois farm products such as grain are getting into Cuba through the ICWG from a joint venture struck between the organizations less than two years ago.

Hurt said farmers in other Midwest states including Indiana also stand to gain, but most of the positive  impact from trading with Cuba could be in the Gulf Coast, including states like Texas and North Carolina.

Transportation costs of shipping product from those areas would be lower because of their proximity to Cuba and ports in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean for loading barges with large volumes of food destined for the new market.

He speculated most of the exports from Indiana would be from large chicken, turkey and hog processing operations at Corydon and other places in the southwestern part of the state, but the real impact would be several years in the making.

Hurt said there’s 11 million people on the island of Cuba, but the ability to purchase goods within the potential new market is limited right now by a “very low” average income in that country. Over time, greater opportunity for trade with the United States would mean Cuba being able to export more of its goods such as sugar, tobacco and rum – and the money derived from those sales would raise the disposable income for Cuba citizens to afford more goods like meat, vegetables and grain raised on American farms.

“Those people in developing countries have a high tendency to spend a large percentage of their added income on food,” said Hurt, who said more of the protein-rich food like meat and eggs start getting purchased in countries that have rising incomes.

Making the impact even more unpredictable is that Cuba, although not blessed with much ground suitable for agriculture, does have “some plowable land” to increase production of its own food. So, how much in U.S farm products it might be willing to import is up to guessing, Hurt said.

So far, Dahlman said the response in Cuba to farm products from Illinois has been favorable because of its high quality and he sees no downside whatsoever in establishing diplomatic relations and trade between the two countries.

He also likes Obama’s stated desire to allow more travel from the United States to Cuba.

“There could be good tourist opportunities there. I think it’s a win-win,” said Dahlman, who’s gone to Cuba several times recently through his relationship with the ICWG.

According to the group’s website, its mission is to make Cuba an ally by building trade relations between the nations. The ICWG was created in 2013 by a unanimous vote in the Illinois General Assembly.