PEORIA, Ill. — King Corn will be dethroned again by soybeans in 2015, reflecting a shift in profitability between the two staple crops that will extend into a rare second year.

But corn prices will eclipse the USDA’s mid-level price prognostication of $3.50 per bushel this year and return to $4-plus levels in 2015, according to Darrel Good, professor emeritus of the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics.

Good delivered a presentation on crop and livestock price prospects for farmers and others at the U of I’s 2014 Farm Economics Summit Dec. 16 at the Peoria Civic Center. He said while corn prices have come under heavy pressure from two consecutive large harvests, soybean prices have remained the strongest – despite similarly large harvests – due to heavy export demand, particularly from China.

“We’ve had a very large crop in 2014, approaching 4 billion bushels. On January 12 we’ll get the final (USDA estimated) number. The good news on soybeans is that we are using them pretty fast. The November crush was not as big as some might have expected, but we still crushed more than last year. And there is still awfully good export demand for soybean meal,” said Good.

“The real strength in soybean demand continues to be on the export side. USDA just raised the forecast for export demand for soybeans by another 40 million bushels.”

Massive demand for soybeans and soybean products from China is continuing to spur demand for U.S. and South American soybeans. With just one-quarter of the marketing year behind them, brokers of U.S. soybeans have already sold some three-quarters of the projected total export demand for the entire marketing year, according to Good.

“We’re seeing China continue to buy large quantities, and they now account for about two-thirds of the total exports of U.S. and South American soybeans,” he added.

Largely owing to increased export demand, soybean prices are expected to average near $10 a bushel for the 2014/15 marketing year and in the upper $9 range for the 2015/16 year.

“Ten dollars is high relative to $3 corn. It suggests to me there is still a little vulnerability on soybean prices moving forward. That will be particularly true if we do shift some acres from corn to soybeans,” Good said.

“This could result in a slight buildup in stocks next year. But there are a lot of unknowns and this is a forecast you could expect to change as we move forward.”

The veteran ag economist told attendees he expects a return to “normal” corn prices in the not-distant future. “There are some indications that we may see a slight decrease in corn acres in 2015. We’re hearing talk that it’s more expensive to plant corn than soybeans, and until recently the price ratio tended to favor soybeans a little.

“Soybeans pencil out pretty good. If the decision was made today, we’d probably see less corn acres than we had this year.”

How much less corn in 2015? Good is basing his price projections for the marketing year of 2015/16 on the premise U.S. farmers will eschew 1 million corn acres for soybeans in spring planting. He’s predicting corn prices will reach an average price of $4.20 by next summer and fall.

“I think that ($4.20) may be conservative and that we could average a little bit higher than that. The new-crop market is almost to that point now,” he said. “I think we’re in the process of turning the corner with corn prices and heading back to more reasonable levels for the years ahead.”

More good news for corn growers: Given the current rate of consumption and an expected production tweak by the USDA in January, corn prices of $3.70 for this year’s crop could be a “reasonable expectation,” according to Good.

He also issued a personal prediction for 2015/16 soybean prices, though as with his corn price projection, he tempered the forecast by reminding everyone producer planting intentions won’t be revealed for quite some time. “On March 31 we’ll get the acre intentions report and move forward from there. I think there is some downside risk in soybeans going forward. Right now I’m predicting $9.75 as an average price for soybeans,” said Good.

Though the lion’s share of his presentation was devoted to corn and soybean prices, he also addressed pork, beef and wheat production. He noted U.S. pork production is expected to increase from 22.66 billion pounds in 2014 to 23.62 billion in 2015. Exports are expected to increase slightly as imports drop modestly. An average price of $65 is expected for hogs in 2015, down from $76 in 2014.

Beef production, exports and imports are expected to decline in 2015, while an average price of nearly $5.50 is expected for wheat at harvest time in 2015.