MCHENRY, Ill. — U.S. sorghum exports to China may be filling some of the void left as Chinese officials continue to ban shipments of corn with the MIR 162 trait, according to a grains analyst with the USDA.

China stopped accepting U.S. corn with Syngenta’s MIR 162 biotech trait in 2013. In October 2014, the United States shipped about 90,000 tons of corn to China and nearly 555,000 tons of sorghum.

“We’re excited and inherently, we think that’s going to continue,” said Rick O’Meara, senior grains analyst with the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). “As with anything in China, if the numbers get too big, there’s always the commercial risk that China does something to curtail it. It is non-biotech, so it does resolve that part of the issue with China. Prices are competitive and from the U.S. perspective, it’s excellent business.”

Chinese officials have made it clear MIR 162 is not approved in their country and they will keep it out in accordance with their regulations, O’Meara noted.

“Always remember, everything China does is murky,” he stated. “There are never any announcements and there never will be. There will never be a wholesale opening or closing of any crop or commodity or port. Nothing is ever predictable. This is the environment we’re in.”

China continues to pile up corn stocks, some of which may be a few years old and of dubious quality, O’Meara said. He spoke Dec. 16 during Allendale’s monthly “Ag Leaders” webinar series.

U.S. exports of dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) to China dropped in September and especially in October, he said. The decreases followed several months of exports of more than 500,000 metric tons.

“(The numbers) fell off a cliff and dried up in October,” O’Meara said. Given China’s concerns over genetically modified products, “it shouldn’t surprise us. The commodity groups have been working with the government and on their own, both here and in China, to try to get something resolved, but it certainly appears there’s just too much uncertainty to do much more business right now.”

Total shipments of U.S. DDGS are still decent, O’Meara noted, thanks to countries such as Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico and Vietnam picking up the slack.

FAS officials pay attention to what’s happening with potential crops in areas such as South America, he said, adding the size and health of plantings around the world impacts the export posture of the United States.

O’Meara said it’s unclear why the Argentine government seems to be holding onto soybeans and other commodities rather than exporting them. “It doesn’t seem the government is particularly helpful toward its export sector,” he noted.

“Anybody who’s watched the Argentine government for any period of time is always mystified when you have a sector that’s so highly driven by exports, whether it’s beans or meat or corn or anything else; surely they can be a bit more friendly. You’d wonder why the government and the sector wouldn’t do everything possible to jack up their exports. They need the foreign exchange. It makes all kinds of sense.”

O’Meara said he’s seen U.S. export market share drop from about 70 percent 17 years ago when he started with USDA, to about 40-45 percent today. Several countries, such as Ukraine and Brazil, have increased production in recent years as commodity prices rose.

U.S. market share will probably remain about where it is, he said. “In terms of reliability and contract sanctity, it just seems like when people get burned they remember why they keep U.S. products in the mix, that those shipments will be delivered, the contracts will be honored. Yes, you can always argue about quality, but the integrity of certificates and the contracts certainly helps a lot.”