DES MOINES, Iowa — Midwest farmer-selling and planting decisions, as well as global demand and weather-related production risks, remain key drivers through 2015, with reluctant farmer-selling being the most critical factor in determining grain flow for the 2014/15 crop, according to Rabobank’s 2015 Commodity Outlook, released in early December.

“There are some very sharp pencils around as farmers look at all their expenses and any way they can reduce costs,” Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey told Farm World. “Folks will be considering less technology in their seeds, possibly some reduction in total fertilizer use, especially with the short fall” and “a lot of pull back in the machinery market.”

Dave Coppess, executive vice president of sales and marketing for Heartland Co-op in West Des Moines, agreed with Northey when he predicted Midwest farmers may use less biotech seed and reduce their fertilizer use to help defray input costs for 2015 spring planting.

“It’s been a late fall, and we’re still applying fertilizer at in-season price levels (as of Dec. 15),” Coppess told Farm World. “We are waiting for suppliers to provide their spring pre-pay information; then we’ll put together retail prices for spring.” 

Clarke McGrath, Iowa State University Extension field agronomist, said seed looks to be flat for the most part, with some of the in-demand genetics up around 2 percent to 4 percent. 

“We do see a trend where guys are backing off of some of the biotech events a little,” he said. “For example, some that were planting rootworm-resistant corn on bean stubble are going back to genetics without the rootworm Bt events in them.” 

In addition, pricing for nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P) and potash (K) has been flat as well, McGrath added. 

“We are early in the pre-pay season, though,” he said. “Sometimes manufacturers will come out with programs near pre-pay time that can offer discounts on some of their products.”

As for N pricing, McGrath said it was around $100 per ton less than it is at pre-pay for spring right now “for those of us who got it applied this fall. We’re back over the $700/ton mark for the most part at the dealerships I work with.” 

“We are a little early to have a great handle on local 28/32 percent prices, but my wholesaler guys tell me that they could rise $10-30/ton pretty easily over the next couple of months,” he said. “It goes back to our fall NH3 acres being down 30 percent or so across the Midwest.” 

“This will put demand pressure on the liquid products, so they recommended getting urea and ammonium nitrate (UAN) locked in as soon as possible,” he added. 

Currently, McGrath said, N, P and K supplies seem fine for now.

“The weather put a stop to our fall NH3 season, so spring could be interesting,” he said. “When we have a short fall like 2014, even if the pipelines and terminals are full and running efficiently, we can still get bottlenecks if the weather doesn’t cooperate. 

“Getting enough trucks on the road and enough applicators in the field is never easy if we get all the spring N applications shoved into small weather windows,” he added. 

Nonetheless, Coppess said the outlook for 2015 spring planting is still good.

“Iowa farmers will plant 23 million acres of crops in 2015,” he said. “Most will apply supplement N, P and K to optimize their yields and return on investment. 

“Improving yields with soil and plant health practices is the farmer’s best strategy for achieving profitability in 2015,” he added. “Shaving costs will not ‘save them to prosperity.’ ”