MCHENRY, Ill. — Farmers and market watchers should assume the strong start for soybean exports during the current marketing year won’t continue, an analyst with Allendale said recently.

Since the Sept. 1 beginning of the marketing year, the United States has exported 1.63 billion bushels of soybeans, not far off the USDA’s whole year estimate of 1.77 billion. While that’s an impressive start, market conditions and recent trends indicate the high export volume won’t continue, said Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale, Inc., during Allendale’s three-day Ag Leaders Conference Series.

The five-year average for U.S. soybean exports for the remainder of the marketing year is 253 million bushels, but last year, 139 million went out during the same time period. Depending on sales for the rest of the year, exports could end up 38 million-80 million bushels lower than the USDA’s export estimate, he said.

Demand from livestock producers for soybean crush has slipped somewhat from last fall’s numbers. And a large South American crop – barring a serious weather problem – is awaiting harvest.

"This year’s sales will be front-loaded just like last year," he stated. "Anybody looking at the current sales pace will say we’ve done a great job already and we’re probably going to do a good job for the next few months, and we’re going to end up just fine on exports. But for exports, it was great while it happened and now we’re going to see exports drop off sharply."

U.S. ending stocks for old-crop soybeans could be 416 million bushels, up from 92 million in 2013. "This is an astounding supply, but it’s not going to be offset by demand," Nelson said. "We’re clearly going to exceed demand."

For the 2015 crop, Allendale analysts expect U.S. farmers to plant 87.4 million acres of soybeans, up from 83.7 million last year. They also anticipate a decrease in yield from 47.8 bushels per acre last year to 40.8 this year. Production is expected to be down slightly from 3.97 billion bushels in 2014 to 3.92 billion for this year’s crop.

There are several question marks about the upcoming corn crop, including acreage and weather, Nelson noted. U.S. ending stocks for old-crop corn have risen from 821 million bushels in 2012 to 1.88 billion in 2014.

The USDA expects demand for old-crop corn to be 13.595 billion bushels, while Allendale officials are estimating 13.575 billion. China’s policy of trying to limit feed imports is impacting this country’s exports of dried distillers grains with solubles (DDGS) and corn, he said.

As for ethanol, production was up 5.4 percent in the last few months of 2014 as compared to the previous year. The USDA’s goal for the whole year – September through August – was an increase of less than 1 percent.

"We’re beating the pants off USDA’s whole year goal (for ethanol)," Nelson said. "We do know that these great times, they’re not going to last. We can’t argue with that idea at all because we have some things going on right now which are throwing a couple of hiccups in this great story so far."

Ethanol stocks are rising, Nelson said, adding the increased demand for gasoline by consumers doesn’t necessarily mean more ethanol is being used. In the latter part of 2014, refiners were using about 9.9 percent of ethanol in the nation’s fuel, while by the end of December, the amount dropped to 9.1 percent.

Corn exports have been affected by problems with China, which hasn’t accepted U.S. corn since last fall, Nelson said. U.S. farmers are also fighting with producers in Argentina, Brazil and Ukraine for the rest of the world market.

"We’re at a disadvantage in terms of price," he said. "We have to keep our domestic prices from rallying too much or we will price ourselves very quickly out of the export market."

For the 2015 corn crop, Allendale estimates farmers will plant 88.3 million acres, a drop from 90.6 million last year. The production estimate is 13.4 billion bushels, down from 14.2 billion in 2014.

"If we talk to 10 different farmers (about whether to plant corn or soybeans), we’ll get 10 different opinions about what’s going to be the most profitable to plant this year," he pointed out. "For the average producer in a corn-based area that can grow very good corn, there’s not a big difference in revenue based on current prices."