By MATTHEW D. ERNST

Missouri Correspondent

BROWNSVILLE, Tenn. — A surprising winner emerged this winter, as Richard Jameson projected net returns for his West Tennessee row crops: Sorghum.

Low corn prices and historic new-crop grain sorghum bids, fueled by strong export demand, have farmers like Jameson taking a new look at grain sorghum. “The last time I grew sorghum was in 2004, on 150 acres,” he said.

This year, he has seed ordered for 500 acres. “Corn prices are down, and now the net profit from sorghum is looking better than corn, soybeans and cotton.”

Bids for new-crop sorghum, delivered to Memphis, showed a basis 55-70 cents above cash futures last week. “Grain sorghum, due to the positive basis at many elevators, is projecting to be the crop with the least loss as well as the lowest cost to produce,” said Aaron Smith, University of Tennessee crop marketing specialist.

The basis at interior elevators in West Tennessee is running 25-30 cents above cash futures. Last week’s new-crop corn basis in the region ranged from -5, at river terminals, to -15 at interior terminals.

The main driver of the strong basis is demand from China. The sorghum price paid at port is the second-highest value, compared to corn, in 70 years, according to the United Sorghum Checkoff (USC).

“That demand continues to remain strong,” said Tim Lust, USC CEO, who called last week’s export sales of 8.6 million bushels “phenomenal.”

Sorghum exports are at 309 million bushels for the year beginning Sept. 1, according to the USDA. That is already 103 percent of its forecast, with five months still remaining in the sorghum marketing year. The USDA’s midpoint sorghum price projection rose by 10 cents in last week’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

While sorghum projects lower gross revenues per acre than corn and cotton, its production expenses are also lower. Last week’s UT crop profitability estimates, based on current USDA grain price forecasts, show dryland sorghum returning $129 per acre over variable costs and negative $30 over all costs, including land. Dryland cotton projects a $145 loss, corn a $90 loss and soybeans at a $56 loss over all costs, according to the UT figures.

Farmers here, like Jameson, are figuring how to fit the crop they call “milo” into their rotations, seeking to minimize negative returns to equity in the era of low corn prices. He said sorghum will still be a minor crop in his county this year, where crop share leases are common and landlords are used to payments from higher-grossing cotton and corn.

On his rented ground, he plans to combine dryland sorghum acreage with irrigated acres in corn and cotton. Still, Jameson’s plans to seed 500 acres will be more sorghum acreage than the 2012 Ag Census reported planted in all his whole home county, Haywood.

He likes how milo, known for its drought resistance, can also fit into whole-farm pest and weed management. And while he realizes export demand is driving the higher prices in his region, he also hears of stronger domestic sorghum feed demand from poultry producers.

There are some marketing cautions for producers, said Smith. Producers without on-farm storage will need to be sure elevators can accept sorghum at harvest. Jameson is contracting with several locations, as his grain handling system is not set up for milo.

Growers waiting to sell sorghum closer to harvest should realize basis may narrow. “Producers might also want to consider locking in at least the basis on grain sorghum,” said Smith.

Jameson can see some potential beyond this year for milo production, as he hears of more interest from the region’s poultry industry in feeding sorghum. If domestic demand can grow alongside exports, he said, his acreage could stay up.

“If you can have a strong domestic (regional) sorghum demand, that’s like a corn producer being close to an ethanol plant,” he noted.

Growing both international and domestic demand is the grain sorghum industry’s goal, said Lust, who acknowledged regions of increasing sorghum quantity demand from poultry and swine feeders. “Even with the large pull from China, the Sorghum Checkoff continues to work with and foster domestic markets,” he said.

“The ethanol industry in the past utilized one-third of the U.S. sorghum crop, and one of the fastest growing segments of our industry is the human and pet food industries that are primarily fulfilled through contract production.”

Pest vigilance required

There will be a learning curve for growers switching from corn to sorghum. “Sorghum and corn are not the same,” said Scott Stewart, UT Integrated Pest Management extension specialist.

“I’m encouraging people to scout, or hire scouting, for their sorghum through the whole season,” he said. Insecticide-treated seed, said Stewart, is an important first defense.

One pest worrying him is sugarcane aphid, first appearing in Tennessee last year. Economically-significant infestations appeared in Texas and Louisiana sorghum fields in 2013. “We don’t know how quickly sugarcane aphid will show up in Tennessee during 2015,” he said. “It is difficult to control and treatments are expensive.”

Sugarcane aphid is believed to overwinter on green plant tissue. The bug also affects sweet sorghum, and Johnsongrass is an alternate host. “If sugarcane aphid overwinters like we think, it will have a winter kill in Tennessee and have to migrate north each year,” said Stewart.

One thing is for certain: Late plantings are more susceptible. “I would recommend planting sorghum by the first two weeks of May in West Tennessee,” said Stewart. Early planting also helps guard against other sorghum pests, like corn earworm and sorghum midge.

Poorly timed insecticide applications can deplete beneficial insect populations, giving sugarcane aphid an edge, he explained. That underscores the need for season-long scouting and appropriate insecticide rates. Thin sorghum stands appear more susceptible to aphid. Growers should plant recommended populations and realize sorghum is susceptible to herbicide drift.

Jameson said there is one similarity between sorghum and his row crops. “I am able to use all my current equipment for sorghum,” he said. “I just needed to buy 16 new seed plates for planting.”