Search Site   
News Stories at a Glance
Garver Farm Market wins zoning appeal to keep ag designation
House Ag’s Brown calls on Trump to intercede to assist farmers
Next Gen Conferences help FFA members define goals 
KDA’s All in for Ag Education Week features student-created book
School zone pesticide bill being fine-tuned in Illinois
Kentucky Hay Testing Lab helps farmers verify forage quality
Kentucky farmer turns one-time tobacco plot into gourd patch
Look at field residue as treasure rather than as trash to get rid of
Kentucky farm wins prestigious environmental stewardship award
Beekeeping Boot Camp offers hands-on learning
Kentucky debuts ‘Friends of Agriculture’ license plate
   
Archive
Search Archive  
   

Domestic dairy demand keeping dairy prices strong

By LEE MIELKE
Mielke Market Weekly 

According to USDA’s latest Cold Storage report issued March 23, February butter stocks totaled 178.2 million pounds, up 29.3 million pounds or 20 percent from January but only 6.4 million pounds or 4 percent above February 2014. Stocks last year were also up 20 percent from January but were 31 percent below those in February 2013.

FC Stone’s Brendan Curran told DairyBusiness Update that the report is "moderately bullish" on butter and "moderately bearish" on cheese.

February American type cheese, at 643.1 million pounds, was up 9.3 million pounds or 1 percent from January and 14.4 million pounds or 2 percent above a year ago. The total cheese inventory on Feb. 28 stood at 1.06 billion pounds, up 19.1 million pounds or 2 percent above January and 54 million pounds or 5 percent above a year ago.

The dairy industry’s fluid milk woes continue. January packaged fluid milk sales totaled 4.41 billion pounds, down 3.1 percent from January 2014, according to USDA’s Dairy Market News.

January sales of conventional products totaled 4.21 billion pounds, down 3.0 percent from a year ago; organic products, at 205 million pounds, were down 5.3 percent, the first organic decline in well over a year. Organic represented about 4.6 percent of total sales for the month.

Looking back, January-December 2014 total packaged fluid milk sales, at 50.12 billion pounds, were down 3.0 percent from the same period a year earlier. Year-to-date sales of conventional products, at 47.64 billion pounds, were down 3.6 percent; organic products, at 2.47 billion, were up 9.2 percent. Organic represented about 4.9 percent of total fluid milk sales in 2014. The figures represent consumption of fluid milk products in Federal milk order marketing areas and California, which account for approximately 92 percent of total fluid milk sales in the U.S.

 

Checking the prices

Cash block cheese closed the last Friday of March at $1.54 per pound, unchanged on the week but 84 cents below a year ago. The Cheddar barrels closed at $1.5450, up 2.5 cents on the week and 74.5 cents below a year ago. Seven cars of block traded hands on the week and 10 of barrel. The NDPSR-surveyed U.S. average block price hit $1.5748, up 1.1 cent, and the barrels averaged $1.5625, up 2.8 cents.

Midwest cheese manufacturers are maintaining busy schedules to accommodate increasing volumes of milk, according to Dairy Market News (DMN). This may sound like repetition of recent weeks, but this week’s conditions continue to repeat the recent past. Curiously, the sameness of conditions for several weeks is causing some nervousness precisely because extended general equilibrium conditions seem aberrant. Nevertheless, significant volumes of milk are being trucked from dairy farms, and cheese continues to be a profitable outlet among dairy processing options.

Domestic cheese demand in the U.S. is still strong both in the retail and foodservice segments. Some Midwest cheese manufacturers note that cheese orders are up and inventories are decreasing. Buyers and sellers each seem comfortable with inventory levels.

Western output is steady to higher on a week to week basis. The impact of seasonally increasing milk supplies and offers of surplus milk are keeping as much milk into cheese making as desired. In addition, nonfat dry milk and condensed skim are available and affordable to fortify/standardize cheese vats.

 

Cash butter finished the week at $1.7525, up 7.25 cents but 24.75 cents below a year ago. Only two cars traded hands on the week. NDPSR butter averaged $1.7082, down 1.3 cents.

Central butter prices are moving lower, with many butter manufacturers finishing print orders for the upcoming holidays, reports DMN. The market tone is firm on strong seasonal demand. Cream supplies are tight. Production rates are mostly steady, with a few butter manufacturers slowing down as the Easter/Passover orders are being shipped. Butter inventories are light to moderate with some manufacturers concerned about not being able to put away enough stocks for demand in future months. Butter production is active in the Western region. Export interest remains slow as U.S. pricing and currency valuations are making exporting tougher. Other suppliers are filling in needs at more competitive prices.

Cash Grade A nonfat dry milk held all week at 97.5 cents per pound. Five cars were sold on the week. NDPSR powder averaged $1.0085, down 6.3 cents, and dry whey averaged 46.68 cents per pound, down 0.9 cent.

Nonfat dry milk prices are lower in all regions on a weak to flat market, says DMN. Many buyers are maintaining a cautious buying approach due to perceived market uncertainty as much of the country moves toward the flush of milk production.

The USDA’s National Milk Cost of Production report, issued Thursday, March 26, shows January total costs were down significantly from December 2014 and from January 2014.

Total feed costs averaged $11.45 per cwt., down $1.34 from December, $1.66 below November, and $1.81 below January 2014. Purchased feed costs, at $6.08 per cwt., were down $1.09 from December, $1.23 below November, and $1.32 below January 2014.

Total costs, including feed, bedding, marketing, fuel, repairs, hired labor, taxes, etc., at $22.87 per cwt., were down $1.57 from December, $2.09 below November, and $2.02 below a year ago. Feed costs made up 50.0 percent of total costs in January, compared to 52.3 percent the month before and 53.3 percent a year ago.

4/1/2015