By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
There were 669 million pounds of pork in cold storage at the end of March. That is the third most for any month, ever. But, it is 2.6 percent less than the month before and thus encouraging news. Earlier this year, labor issues at West Coast docks had slowed exports and caused a buildup in stocks. Hopefully, the month-over-month decline in frozen pork is a sign that the backlog is being worked down.
The poultry industry is struggling to contain the spread of Avian Influenza. A number of flocks have been eliminated in the effort to control the spread. That reduces supply and boosts prices a bit. But, foreign buyers are less willing to take U.S. product, which hurts demand.
The U.S. has been the world’s top pork exporter for the last 10 years. USDA is predicting that the E.U. will export more pork than the U.S. this year, thanks largely to a strong dollar and a weak Euro.
Seasonally, hog slaughter should trend lower and hog prices higher as we move closer to the start of summer.
The morning pork cutout value Friday, April 24, was $69.38 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is up $2.75 from the week before but down $46.84 from a year ago. For the third week in a row, wholesale belly prices are lower than the pork cutout value.
The negotiated carcass price Thursday, April 23, for plant-delivered hogs averaged $63.00 per cwt., which is 86 cents higher than a week earlier but $46.24 lower than a year ago.
Because of low sales volume and confidentiality rules, there were no regional or national negotiated hog carcass price reports Friday morning, April 24.
Peoria had a top live price Friday of $41 per cwt., $1 higher than the previous Friday. The top price April 24 for interior Missouri live hogs was $44.50 per cwt., unchanged from the previous Friday.
Hog slaughter last week totaled 2.184 million head, down 2.6 percent from the week before but up 9.7 percent from same week last year. Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 5.5 percent, and pork production is up 5.8 percent.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 283.5 pounds, down 0.3 pound from the week before and down 2.9 pounds from a year ago.
The May lean hog futures contract closed Friday, April 24, at $71.95 per cwt., up $1.43 for the week. June hog futures ended last week at $79.45 per cwt., up $3.18 from the week before. July hogs gained $3.28 last week to close at $80.75 per cwt. The August contract also settled at $80.75 per cwt.
USDA estimates that 9 percent of corn acres had been planted by April 19. That is 3 points ahead of last year but 4 points below the five-year average.
The May corn futures contract settled at $3.645 per bushel Friday, April 24, which is 15.25 cents lower than a week earlier. September corn futures ended the week at $3.775 per bushel.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.
