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Declining milk consumption in schools a concern at NMPF

By LEE MIELKE
Mielke Market Weekly 

A Capitol Hill briefing for House staff last week focused on a new report on "Fluid Milk in School Programs" by the National Dairy Council. It was hosted by Reps. G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) and Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) in the House Committee on Agriculture. The National Milk Producers Federation and the International Dairy Foods Association strongly support the National Dairy Council’s report and helped coordinate the briefing.

The report identified declining milk consumption in schools as a concern because of the nutritional importance of milk in children’s diets. The majority of school-aged children do not meet current government dietary recommended intakes for low-fat and fat-free milk and dairy products.

"With Congress set to reauthorize school nutrition programs this year, this report will provide members of Congress with the information they need to ensure that school children continue to have access to healthy and nutritious dairy products," stated an NMPF news release.

Federal order prices

The USDA announced the April Federal order Class III benchmark milk price Wednesday (April 29) at $15.81 per cwt., up 25 cents from March, $8.50 below April 2014, but $1.59 above California’s comparable 4b milk price. That equates to about $1.36 per gallon, up from $1.34 last month, and compares to $2.09 a year ago.

Class III futures portend a larger jump next month: The May contract settled Thursday, April 30, at $16.22 per cwt. June settled at $16.34, with the peak at $17.26 in November, $7.34 below the 2014 peak and record high $24.60 in September. The four month Class III average now stands at $15.75, down from $23.04 at this time a year ago, and compares to $17.48 in 2013.

The April Class IV price is $13.51, down 29 cents from March and an eye-catching $9.83 below a year ago. The four month Class IV average is at $13.59, down from $23.19 a year ago and compares to $17.81 in 2013.

The four-week NPSR-surveyed cheese price used to calculate the April price averaged $1.6122 per pound, up 3.7 cents from March. Butter averaged $1.7355, up 4.1 cents. Nonfat dry milk averaged 96.84 cents per pound, down 5.3 cents, and dry whey averaged 46.1 cents per pound, down 2.1 cents.

California’s April Class 4b cheese milk is $14.22 per cwt., up 25 cents from March but $7.51 below April 2014 and $1.59 shy of the comparable Federal order Class III price. The gap is the same as last month’s and compares to $2.58 a year ago and 67 cents in April 2013. The four-month 4b average stands at $13.93, down from $21.34 a year ago and compares to $15.80 in 2013.

The Class 4a butter-powder milk price is $13.36, down 6 cents from March and $9.95 below a year ago. The 4b average now stands at $13.33, down from $22.97 a year ago and compares to $17.75 in 2013.

Cheese

Cash cheese ends April and begins May in a stronger than expected position. The Cheddar blocks closed Friday, May 1, at $1.61 per pound, unchanged on the week but 46 cents below a year ago when they tumbled 14 cents to $2.07 per pound. The Cheddar barrels finished at $1.6175, down a quarter-cent on the week and 43.75 cents below a year ago when they rolled 16.5 cents lower, to $2.0550. Four cars of block traded hands last week and none of barrel. The NDPSR-surveyed U.S. average block price hit $1.5925, up 1.4 cents. The barrels averaged $1.6575, up 1.8 cents.

Has cheese put in a floor? Some believe that’s true, according to the April 24 Dairy and Food Market Analyst.

"Given the conversations we had at the Wisconsin Cheese Makers meeting (last) week, it feels like market sentiment is changing," editor Jerry Dryer wrote. "After being very bearish for some time, cheese makers and others gathered here in Madison, Wis., were less bearish. In fact, some were even bullish. While we don’t completely agree, several people told us the cheese market has put in a floor for the year and it will only move higher from here.

"We’re hearing two different stories from cheese makers: Some cheese makers tell us they can’t make enough cheese. Their plants are at full capacity with orders booked well into the future. This matches with what we’re hearing from traders; the cheese market is tight and some say it has tightened over the past couple of weeks.

"However, one major cheese manufacturer is arguing that prices should be significantly lower. He pointed at growing inventories, weak exports and increasing imports." To read more, write Matt Gould at MGould@DairyMarketAnalyst.com

Most Midwest cheese plants remain busy, pushed along by the higher volumes of milk being produced, reports Dairy Market News (DMN). The volume of plant production for several weeks is taking a personnel toll, leaving some cheese facility staff feeling "exhausted." Some extra barrel production was occurring last week, but less so than the previous week. Interest in Cheddar remains strong, but Italian varieties, while still receiving good demand, are closer to a desired balance. Most cheese manufacturers are satisfied with customer demand accommodating higher available seasonal milk supplies going into cheese.

Most cheese plants in the West have active schedules, and there is good demand for the output. Customers are still buying good volumes of cheese. The question is increasingly asked: Is current demand active or holding inventories of cheese for consumption later in the year? Whatever the answer, sales are strong, and that is enough to keep production schedules active. Recent demand spikes for barrels were taken as typical by some manufacturers who cite building inventories for the grilling season as a factor in higher seasonal demand for process cheese, made primarily from barrel cheese.

5/6/2015