By LEE MIELKE
Mielke Market Weekly
There wasn’t much encouragement in last week’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, which saw the weighted average for all products offered drop 4.3 percent, following a 2.2 percent decline in the May 19 event, and a 3.5 percent decline May 5. This is the sixth consecutive session of loss.
All products offers were down, led by butter, down 10.0 percent, following a 3.2 percent decline in the last event. Anhydrous milkfat was next, down 7.4 percent, following a 4.8 percent decline last time. Buttermilk powder was down 7.0 percent, following a 3.2 percent gain last time; lactose was down 6.9 percent, after a 0.9 percent gain last time. Rennet casein was off 4.4 percent, after inching 0.4 percent lower last time. Whole milk powder was down 3.1 percent, following a decline of 0.5 percent in the last event. Skim milk powder rounded out the declines, off 1.3 percent after a 3.6 percent decline last time. No cheese was offered last week.
FC Stone reports the average GDT butter price June 2 equated to about $1.1882 per pound U.S., down from $1.3205 per pound in the May 19 event ($1.1592/lb. on 80% butterfat, down from $1.2883/lb.). Contrast that to CME butter, which was at $2.0050 on Monday but closed Friday, June 5, at $1.90 per pound. GDT skim milk powder, at 89.92 cents per pound U.S., is down from 90.36 cents per pound, and the whole milk powder average at $1.0473 per pound U.S., compares to $1.0841in the last event. CME Grade A nonfat dry milk price closed Friday (June 5) at 88 cents per pound.
Regarding the absence of cheese last week, FC Stone dairy broker Dave Kurzawski said, "The one thing that seems safe to say is that the Cheddar auction is not bullish. The question is: Is it bearish or just quiet? I side with the latter.
"Reduced volume offerings during the slow milk production time are not unusual. I would think offers on Cheddar are also light this time of year in part because of a push to make more mozzarella. Moreover, Cheddar demand is likely going towards European product due to price discounts there."
HighGround Dairy’s Eric Meyer warned in his latest New Zealand Dairy Report that "Too much milk is still a concern across the globe and therefore difficult to justify dairy commodity prices rising in the coming months.
"Taking a long-term view, it is likely that global dairy consumption growth rates will exceed production over the next six months creating a more balanced market. Exactly how long it takes for markets to come back to equilibrium will depend on the extent of which stocks have built throughout the supply chain."