By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook 

USDA’s June WASDE forecasts increased expected 2015 pork production by 0.2 percent but left 2016 production unchanged. USDA is now predicting 7.1 percent more pork this year than last and 1.0 percent more pork in 2016 than in 2015. USDA expects barrow and gilt prices to average close to $50 per cwt live this year and $46 per cwt next year.

The June WASDE left USDA’s corn price forecast for the 2015-16 marketing year unchanged at $3.20-3.80 per bushel. The soybean meal price forecast also was unchanged at $305-345 per ton.

Avian Influenza continues to take a heavy toll on the nation’s turkey and egg-laying flocks. Over 7 million turkeys and 37 million layers have been lost to the disease thus far this year. USDA’s June WASDE lowered expected 2015 turkey production by 6.3 percent from the May forecast and lowered predicted egg production by 4 percent. USDA raised their forecast of 2015 egg prices by a whopping 22 percent.

The negotiated carcass price Thursday, June 11, for plant delivered hogs averaged $77.42 per cwt, which is $1.18 lower than a week earlier.

Peoria had a top live price Friday, June 12, of $51 per cwt, $3 lower than the previous Friday. The top price June 12 for interior Missouri live hogs was $55 per cwt, unchanged from the previous Friday.

The national average negotiated barrow and gilt purchase price on the morning report Friday, June 12, was $76.73 per cwt, down $1.70 from the previous Friday. Both the Western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $77.51 per cwt for negotiated purchases that morning. There was no Eastern Corn Belt negotiated price quote on June 12.

That morning’s pork cutout value was $85.02 per cwt FOB the plants. That is down 39 cents from the week before and down $35.86 from a year ago.

The national negotiated hog price June 12 equaled 90.2 percent of the cutout value.

Hog slaughter last week totaled 2.128 million head, up 0.4 percent from the week before and up 11.2 percent from same week last year. Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 6.1 percent and pork production is up 5.9 percent.

USDA will release the results of its latest hog inventory survey on June 26. Look for upward revisions in last fall’s pig crop estimate.

The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 282.1 pounds, down 0.8 pound from the week before and down 4.6 pounds from a year ago. This was the eleventh consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.

The June lean hog futures contract closed Friday, June 12, at $81.45 per cwt, down 22 cents for the week. July hog futures ended the week at $78.05 per cwt, down $3.07 from the week before. August hogs lost $4.10 last week to close at $76.72 per cwt. The October contract settled at $67.35 per cwt.

The July corn futures contract settled at $3.53/bushel on June 12, down 8 cents for the week. The September corn contract ended the week at $3.59.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.