The rise in canola oil for human consumption is also linked to soy oil’s use in biofuels. But the two still compete, although this year’s global production situation is creating a situation where canola markets may have less impact on soy.
"The canola market has already divorced itself from the soybean market, to the extent that it can," said John Duvenaud, grains analyst at Wild Oats Grain Market Advisory, in Winnipeg.
To be sure, the two markets are still closely related, especially the oil markets. An analysis last year by University of Missouri researchers showed U.S. demand for canola oil is much affected by U.S. soybean oil market conditions. But changes in palm oil prices create great response in both soybean and canola oil markets. Palm is the global leader in vegetable oil market share.
Duvenaud sees good price prospects for canola growers this year, because of strong oil demand and lower stocks. "The vegetable oil space is in very tough shape when it comes to canola," he said. That means soybean oil is positioned to soon recapture some its lost share.
"I think soybean oil is going to become the leader of the vegetable oil complex," he added.
Canola is the most profitable of Canada’s field crops, according to the CCGA. National canola acreage is down 2.4 percent this year, just under 20 million acres, according to the latest report from Statistics Canada. That number is likely "larger than reality," said Duvenaud, who said weather forced substantial reseeding of canola in the Prairie provinces this year.
Canola production is expanding in the United States, as reported June 10 in Farm World. A canola processing plant in Trenton, Ky., has contracted 24,000 acres this year, with eventual capacity of 35,000-70,000 acres.
Soy industry representatives said according to a presentation at the Chicago conference, consumers trust information from farmers but remain wary of spokespeople tied to "industry." Both canola and soy groups have faced market challenges, especially in Europe and North America, related to consumer perceptions of genetically modified organisms, or GMOs.
Sustainability is another consumer issue. Laura Foell, a soybean farmer from Schaller, Iowa, who chairs the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said oilseed producers need to drive the consumer conversation. "A lot of times people want us to put a number on sustainability," she said.
"But farmers in the U.S. need to be continuously improving using new technologies, using different farming methods. To be really sustainable, we need to be economically sustainable, because if you can’t make a profit, you’re not sustainable. We need to be environmentally sustainable and we need to be socially sustainable."
Oilseed groups worldwide are faced with communicating their message, around issues such as sustainability and GMOs, to different consumer groups in different countries. A fifth-generation farmer from Argentina told the oilseed conference how he defines sustainability.
"Our land is borrowed from our children. So, we must be really aware what we are doing with our land, and the way we do things," said Pedro Vigneau.