COLUMBIA, Mo. — While U.S. pork exports peaked in 2012 at four times the level of 2000, since then there has been a slow decline, with exports dropping below the year-ago level for 11 of the last 13 months, according to University of Missouri agricultural economists.

“Pork exports totaled 395 million pounds during July, down 0.5 percent compared to a year ago,” said Ron Plain in his Sept. 7 “Hog Outlook” report. “During the first seven months of 2015, pork exports were down 4.3 percent, with the biggest decline being shipments to China, Russia and Japan.

“In a positive sign, pork exports to China during July were the most for any month since March 2014.”

U.S. pork imports, however, totaled 85 million pounds during July, up 7.5 percent, compared to a year ago. “Pork imports have been above the year-ago level for 26 of the last 28 months,” Plain said. “Through July, 2015 pork imports are up 18.1 percent, with most of the increase coming from Canada.

“Pork exports equaled 20 percent of U.S. production in July. Pork imports equaled 4.3 percent of production. More people with more money to spend are good for meat demand.”

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the U.S. economy added 173,000 jobs in August, which was 45,000 below the average of trade forecasts. Moreover, for the 16 weeks beginning April 20, hog slaughter averaged 2.089 million head.

Except for holiday weeks, Plain said hog slaughter is likely to stay above 2.2 million for the rest of 2015.

“(Last) week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.171 million head, down 2.7 percent from last week, but up 22.1 percent from the same week last year, which began with Labor Day,” he said. “The national-negotiated barrow and gilt price on the morning report today (Sept. 7) was $67.74 per cwt., down $3.31 from (the previous) Friday morning.

“Both the Western Corn Belt and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $67.77 per cwt. (Sept. 7), with the Western Corn Belt down $2.57 for the week. There was no negotiated price quote (Sept. 7) for the Eastern Corn Belt.”

As of Sept. 11, the average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota the previous week was 277.4 pounds, up 0.4 pound from a week earlier, but down 4.7 pounds from a year ago, which was the 24th consecutive week, with weights lighter than last year.

Ron Birkenholz, communications director for the Iowa Pork Producers Assoc. in Clive, explained as the nation’s top pork producers, his state’s hog farmers have enjoyed a good, long run of strong exports “and this year’s downturn is disappointing.”

“Producer profitability is already being impacted by other factors and the declining export market is adding insult to injury,” he said. “With the U.S. exporting 25 percent of total production, farmers depend on having strong exports to add value to the price of each hog sold.”

Birkenholz said limited or blocked access to key markets, increased international competition and global economic factors are all working against U.S. producers.

“We’re encouraged by the fact that Korea, Mexico and Latin America continue to find value in U.S. pork and are increasing volumes. We can only hope that the situation improves in other key markets and exports can finish the year strong,” he noted.

Plain said October lean hog futures contract settled (on Sept. 11) at $67.325 per cwt., down $1.825 for the week. December hog futures ended the week at $62.65 per cwt., down 70 cents from the week before, with February hogs losing $1.15 last week to close at $66.65 per cwt.

In addition, the April contract ended the week at $70.35 per cwt., and the September corn futures gained 25 cents the previous week to close at $3.745 per bushel.