By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook 

USDA’s September Hogs & Pigs report had no big surprises. The market hog inventory was up 3.9 percent on Sept. 1, which is the same as the average of pre-release trade predictions. The 180 pounds plus weight group was up 9.5 percent, 120-179 pounds group up 8.0 percent, 50-119 pounds up 3.0 percent, and under 50 pounds down 0.5 percent. Based on preliminary numbers, September hog slaughter was up 10.3 percent. So, USDA’s heavy weight number may be a tad bit low.

The farrowing numbers in the September hog survey were somewhat bearish as both summer and fall farrowings were down less than both the average trade prediction and the June Hogs & Pigs forecast. USDA said that June-August farrowings were down 1.6 percent. The average of pre-release trade forecasts were for summer farrowings to be down 1.9 percent. The June Hogs & Pigs report predicted June-August farrowings would be down 2.5 percent. USDA said farrowing intentions for September-November are down 2.5 percent. The pre-release trade average was for down 2.8 percent. The June inventory report predicted fall farrowings would be down 4.3 percent. USDA said December-February farrowing intentions are likely to be down 0.7 percent. The trade estimate was down 0.9 percent.

USDA said pigs per litter during June-August were a record 10.39 head, which is up 2.3 percent from a year ago. Producers have quickly learned how to cope with the PED virus.

The negotiated carcass price Thursday, Oct. 1, for plant delivered hogs averaged $70.65 per cwt., which is $1.89 higher than a week earlier.

The national negotiated barrow and gilt price on the morning report Friday (Oct. 2) was $69.83 per cwt., up $3.10 from the previous Friday morning. The Western Corn Belt averaged $70.71 per cwt. Friday morning, up $1.87 for the week. There were no negotiated price quotes that morning for the Eastern Corn Belt or Iowa-Minnesota.

Peoria had a top live price Oct. 2 of $44 per cwt., up $1 from the previous Friday. The top price for interior Missouri live hogs was $48.25 per cwt., up $2.25 from the previous Friday.

The morning pork cutout value Friday, Oct. 2, was $86.51 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is up $2.22 from the week before. The Friday morning national negotiated hog price was only 80.7 percent of the cutout value.

This week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.27 million head, down 0.3 percent from last week, but up 8.9 percent from the same week last year.

The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 279.7 pounds, up 0.8 pound from a week earlier, but down 4.9 pounds from a year ago. This was the 27th consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.

The October lean hog futures contract settled Oct. 2 at $73.35 per cwt., up $1.47 for the week. December hog futures ended the week at $65.375 per cwt., down 40 cents from the week before. February hogs lost 73 cents last week to close at $68.225 per cwt.. April closed at $72.125 per cwt.

The December corn futures contracted settled at $3.8925 per bushel Friday. That is up a quarter of a cent from the previous Friday.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain and Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.