By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
U.S. pork imports were up 11.4 percent in August, and pork exports were up 6.5 percent, compared to 12 months earlier. The increase in exports was largely due to increased shipments to Mexico. Canada supplied most of the increase in pork imports. Imports equaled 4.7 percent of August pork production, while exports equaled 19.2 percent of production. During the first eight months of 2015, pork exports were down 3.1 percent and imports were up 12.2 percent compared to January-August 2014.
Through August, live hog imports were up 15.5 percent, with 11.5 percent more weaner/feeder pigs being imported and 35.9 percent more other hogs than during the first eight months of 2014.
Domestic demand for pork was up in August, but export demand was down for the 13th consecutive month. U.S. per capita expenditures for pork have been up for 31 of the last 32 months.
The October WASDE reduced USDA’s estimate of 2015 corn production by 30 million bushels and cut the soybean production estimate by 47 million bushels. USDA raised the 2015-16 marketing year corn price forecast by 5 cents to $3.50-$4.10 per bushel but left the soybean price forecast unchanged at $8.40-$9.90 per bushel.
USDA raised their prediction of 2015 pork production by 55 million pounds and put their forecast of the 2015 average price for barrows and gilts to $50.82 per cwt. They are predicting 1.4 percent more pork in 2016 and an average price for market hogs that is $1 to $4 per cwt. lower than this year.
The national negotiated barrow and gilt price on the morning report Friday, Oct. 9, was $69.82 per cwt., down a penny from the previous Friday morning. The Western Corn Belt averaged $70.14 per cwt. on Friday morning, down 57 cents for the week. Iowa-Minnesota averaged $70.48 per cwt., down 23 cents from the previous week. There were no negotiated price quotes Friday morning, Oct. 9, for the Eastern Corn Belt.
Peoria had a top live price Friday of $49 per cwt., up $5 from the previous Friday. The top price Oct. 9 for interior Missouri live hogs was $48.25 per cwt., unchanged from the previous Friday.
The morning pork cutout value Friday, Oct. 9, was $88.34 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is up $1.83 from the week before, with loins, hams and bellies all higher. The national negotiated hog price Friday morning (Oct. 9) was only 79.0 percent of the cutout value.
Last week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.29 million head, up 0.9 percent from the previous week and up 6.8 percent from the same week last year.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 280.3 pounds, up 0.6 pound from a week earlier, but down 4.5 pounds from a year ago. This was the 28th consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.
The October lean hog futures contract settled Friday at $73.83 per cwt., up 48 cents for the week. December hog futures ended the week at $66.13 per cwt., up 75 cents from the week before. February hogs gained 73 cents last week to close at $68.95 per cwt.
The December corn futures contracted settled at $3.9125 per bushel Friday. That is up two cents from the previous Friday.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain and Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.
