CHICAGO, Ill. — Meteorologists across the country are predicting one of the strongest El Nino events this winter, with the potential next spring for a wet, stormy season for much of the Midwest.

But for much of the region leading up to spring, the periodic water-warming event likely will produce below-average precipitation for much of the winter season, experts say.

El Nino events, which occur about twice every decade, are the above-average warming of surface water temperatures throughout the central and eastern parts of the Pacific Ocean.

The coinciding La Nina events occur when the Pacific’s surface temperatures dip below average. Both phenomena impact weather conditions globally, but mostly during winter in the United States.

Current readings from the Pacific clearly show a pattern that mirrors one of the strongest El Ninos on record, during the 1997-98 winter season, said Bryce Anderson, senior ag meteorologist for DTN/The Progressive Farmer.

In a conference regarding the issue, he said growers will want to pay close attention to the dry conditions as well as an expected boost of precipitation during the early spring, as El Nino shifts into La Nina.

"There could be some pretty good rounds of severe weather and waves of energy across the Midwest next spring, just as we saw in the 1997-98 event," Anderson explained.

But for much of the region, parti-cularly Michigan, this winter likely will be drier than usual; while no parts of the region are considered even mildly in drought now, parts of Michigan now are abnormally dry.

"For growers, the key seems to be to watch soil moisture levels closely," Anderson noted.

"Parts of the Midwest likely will be excessively dry leading into the spring … and that could cause problems for wheat growers."

Illinois State Climatologist Jim Angel noted last month was the second-driest October on record, and conditions appear ripe for a winter season with less precipitation than usual.

Based on past El Ninos and current models, the impact of this season’s event will be felt most on the two coasts, with California benefiting from a likely big increase in precipitation and the East Coast feeling the effects of big snow events, said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center.

"While it is good news that drought improvement is predicted for Cali-fornia, one season of above-average rain and snow is unlikely to remove four years of drought," he pointed out.

"California would need close to twice its normal rainfall to get out of drought, and that’s unlikely."

So how much precipitation is expected in the Midwest as a result of El Nino this season?

Forecasts typically don’t touch on amounts of rain and now, only that there will be more of it, Halpert said. Snow forecasts depend upon the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance.