By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
The U.S. economy grew only 1.5 percent during the third quarter. That is far less than what is needed for robust meat demand. The World Health Organization released a report linking processed meats to an increase in the risk of getting cancer.
That isn’t good for meat demand either.
It was a down week in the hog market. The average negotiated price for barrows and gilts purchased on Oct. 29 for slaughter plant delivery was $63.10 per cwt., down $6.16 from a week earlier.
The national average negotiated carcass price on the morning report of Oct. 30 was $60.68 per cwt. The Western Corn Belt averaged $59.38 per cwt. and Iowa-Minnesota averaged $60.07 per cwt. for negotiated purchases this morning.
There was no morning price quote for the Eastern Corn Belt on Oct. 30.
Peoria had a top live price on Oct. 30 of $42 per cwt., down $4 from the previous Friday. The top price on Oct. 30 for interior Missouri live hogs was $46.75 per cwt., down $1.50 from the week before.
The Oct. 30 morning pork cutout value was $80.61 per cwt. That is down $5.82 from the prior week. Wholesale belly prices were down a whopping $25.52 per cwt. as of Oct. 30.
Pork belly prices usually trend lower at this time of year. Despite the decline, belly prices are still above the year-ago level.
Hog prices continue to be weak compared to the cutout value. This morning’s national average hog carcass price was only 75.3 percent of the pork cutout value.
This week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.253 million head, down 2.6 percent (1,000 head) from last week, but up 2.7 percent from the same week last year.
Year-to-date hog slaughter is up 8.0 percent, but because of lighter slaughter weights, year-to-date pork production is up only 7.2 percent.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 282.2 pounds, unchanged from a week earlier and down 2.6 pounds from a year ago.
This was the 31st consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.
Hog futures were lower as of Oct. 30. The December lean hog futures contract settled at $59.20 per cwt., down $4.40 for the week. February hog futures ended the week at $62.75 per cwt., down $3.40 from the week before. April hogs lost $2.55 this week to close at $67.425 per cwt.
The December corn futures contracted settled at $3.8225 per bushel on Oct. 30. That is up 2.5 cents from the previous Friday.
It has been a dry fall in much of the Midwest, and that has moved harvest forward quickly. USDA estimates that, as of Oct. 25, 75 percent of the corn acres and 87 percent of soybean acres had been harvested. Both numbers are ahead of the average for that date.
Hog producers appear to be doing a good job of managing the PED virus. The number of new cases continues to be lower than at this time last year.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain or Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.
