JACKSON, Tenn. — Tennessee cotton acreage will continue to rebound this year, and producers doing fieldwork are already looking at how they will bring in the crop this fall.

 

The state’s farmers plan to plant 45,000 more acres of cotton this season than last year. The USDA Prospective Plantings survey, released March 31, forecasts 300,000 cotton acres this year in Tennessee. Harvest capacity is an important consideration for producers trying cotton again, said Tyson Raper, University of Tennessee cotton specialist.

 

“When they left cotton a couple years ago, many sold their basket equipment under the assumption that when they came back into the crop, they would likely invest in a round module picker,” he said.

 

With cotton acreage expanding, producers are upgrading harvest equipment. “There will be a large number of new cotton picking equipment arriving in West Tennessee to prepare for the 2017 season,” he said.

 

Newer, six-row round module building cotton pickers bring higher harvest capacity. A Tennessee producer using a round module building picker during a typical season could expect to cover 29 percent more acres than an old six-row picker, and nearly 10 percent more than a six-row basket, according to an analysis published by scientists at UT, Kansas State University and Cotton, Inc.

 

Those assumptions are based on certain weather conditions, said Raper, and Tennessee cotton growers will need to account for adverse weather. The region enjoyed favorable weather during the 2015 and 2016 cotton harvest, but that could change. “Keep in mind, those harvest windows will vary from year to year,” he said.

 

There are other considerations as pr oducers determine their harvest equipment needs. More acreage per picker can result in a higher potential for quality and lint loss in bad weather, explained Raper. “Should the weather cooperate, each picker could carry considerably more acres – but the chances of bad weather and considerably less acres are just as likely.”

 

Producers in Tennessee, Mississippi and Arkansas are turning back to cotton this year because of lower projected profitability from corn, as well as mixed profitability from corn and soybeans. The April 11 estimated costs and returns from UT show cotton returning $290 per acre above variable costs. That was $60 more than corn and almost $100 more than soybeans, at futures market prices that day.

 

Chuck Danehower, UT farm management specialist in Ripley, said cotton’s potential profitability is attractive to producers looking for positive cash flow. One caveat: A farm’s individual situation will always need to be considered. “Expenses will vary among producers and production systems,” said Danehower in his monthly report on crop cost and return estimates. The cost of capital – which includes fixed costs for cotton harvesting equipment – is higher for cotton than other row crops in Tennessee. “Producers should look at these returns as what could be if no adjustments are made in their operation, and consider it a warning sign that adjustments will need to be made in 2017 to be sustainable.”

 

The Mid-South cotton states – Mississippi, Missouri, Arkansas and Tennessee – show a 285,000-acre increase over 2016 for prospective cotton plantings, according to USDA. That totals 1.6 million cotton acres in those states, compared to 1.35 million planted last year.

 

Most of the increase comes in Arkansas and Mississippi; Missouri will maintain about the same acreage, according to the survey. That survey was in line with a survey conducted by the National Cotton Council (NCC) through mid-January, which indicated a rise in cotton acreage because of price differences between cotton and other commodities. “History has shown that U.S. farmers respond to relative prices when making planting decisions,” said Jody Campiche, NCC vice president, Economics & Policy Analysis.