OTTAWA — Canadian farmers intend to plant more canola, soybeans and oats in 2017, but fewer acres of durum wheat and lentils – crops that were both at high levels last year, according to the Stats Canada Principal Field Crops Areas report

for March.

 

“At first look, this report suggests producers intend to seed a big crop, with summer fallow acres expected to fall to a record low of 1.765 million acres,” said Cliff Jamieson, a Canadian grains analyst. “A quick look at the total acres reported, including summer fallow acres, shows 2017 acres being 1.9 million acres higher than the 99.5 million acres seeded to all crops reported in 2016, which begs the question (of) where this acreage came from.”

 

He said the “data resulted in a surprise” when it came to intended wheat planting.

 

“Producers plan to seed a total of 23.182 million acres, slightly higher than the top of the range reported by Commodity News Service in pre-report estimates and just 0.1 percent below the acreage planted in 2016,” he said. “It’s also just 1.2 percent below Canada’s 10-year average for all-wheat acres.”

 Released April 21, the report on the 2017/18 crop year is based on producer surveys conducted from March 16-31. This early report covers 96-98 percent of the expected Canadian acreage.

 Nationally, farmers reported intending to seed 23.2 million acres of all varieties of wheat in 2017, relatively unchanged from the area seeded in 2016. Western producers, accounting for 95 percent of this acreage, are expecting only a slight increase of 0.4 percent overall, to 22 million acres.

 Breaking this number down further, however, Jamieson said durum acres took the big hit, expected to fall 16.9 percent to 5.145 million acres – the lower end of the range of pre-report estimates.

 

“This reduction was widely expected, given the fusarium challenges faced in 2016 due to the wet growing season faced and the expected large carryout of low-quality stocks.”

 The report said Alberta anticipates wheat acreage to be up 10 percent to 7.4 million acres, a possible record high, but less area is to be dedicated to durum, down 8.5 percent to 1.1 million acres.

Saskatchewan farmers expect wheat area to decrease 2.7 percent to 11.8 million acres. Canadian farmers are expecting to seed more canola in 2017, up to a potential record-high 22.4 million acres (up 9.9 percent). “Oilseeds may have stolen the show in this report, with record acres for both canola and soybeans expected,” Jamieson said.

 

He noted Manitoba producers are expected to trim their acreage by 1.7 percent, while Saskatchewan expects to increase acres by 10.6 percent and Alberta, by 14.6 percent. Shaun Wildman, a Saskatchewan farmer and independent futures trader, told Reuters there will definitely be a lot more canola.

 “(Forecast acreage) is a little higher than I expected, but I don’t think it’s completely realistic,” he said. “The price signals are there.” 

 

Jamieson said flax acres are also expected to jump 19.3 percent to 1.115 million acres, still 10 percent below the 10-year average. At the national level, farmers intend to seed a record 7 million acres of soybeans, up 27.2 percent from 2016.

 

“Today’s report also shows producers’ growing enthusiasm for soybeans, with all producing provinces expected to increase production,” he said. “Overall, a 27.2 percent increase in expected acres is reported, which includes an 11.4 percent increase in acres in Ontario to 3 million acres and a 34.6 percent increase in Manitoba to an expected 2.2 million acres.

 “While the smallest-producing province, Saskatchewan acres are expected to increase a whopping 204 percent to 730,000 acres. With close to 3 million acres expected in the West, this will certainly increase the call for crush capacity to be added in western Canada.”

 

Jamieson said farmers across almost all provinces reported they intend to seed less barley in 2017 (down 8 percent), dropping acreage to 5.9 million acres nationally. He said feed buyers, on the other hand, will grow increasingly nervous, given the expected drop is just slightly lower than the 2014 acreage – and the lowest on record.

 On the other hand, he said areas seeded to oats are expected to rise in most provinces (by 20.6 percent over 2016), to 3.4 million acres. At the national level, corn for grain acreage is anticipated to rise to 3.8 million acres, an increase of 12.8 percent over 2016.