WASHINGTON, D.C. — High global stocks of grains and oilseeds will keep exports flowing at prices attractive to buyers, with higher imports expected for wheat and soybeans, according to the first USDA crop outlook for this season.

 

Higher global soybean production, crush and exports are expected, according to the May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The USDA outlook projects a 2017/18 season average soybean price at $8.30-$10.30 per bushel, with the low figure being $1 below last year’s season average price. Despite price pressure from high global supplies, there could be beneficial soybean price bumps ahead. South American producers are reportedly holding soybeans for future sales.

 

“Depending on the weather and if Brazilian farmers continue to hold back beans, there may be future marketing opportunities,” said Rolland Schnell, Iowa Soybean Assoc. president.

 

Soy oil demand is strong, especially in Asia, according to USDA. China has this year already increased its soy imports, according to a May 9 Reuters report. USDA projects global soybean exports up 5 million metric tons from 2016/17, with higher imports in China, Egypt, Vietnam and the European Union.

 

Global corn exports continue increasing. Vietnam, Egypt, the EU, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Iran will increase their corn imports this year, according to USDA; however, U.S. corn export volumes will decline because of fewer corn acres here.

 

Strong global demand for corn at low prices is expected to continue, said Dan O’Brien, Kansas State University grain marketing specialist. The demand for corn at today’s price levels could help create price volatility in the late spring and summer, if U.S. corn crop conditions deteriorate, he said.

 

Global wheat imports are expected to set a record for the fifth consecutive year, according to USDA. European growers could benefit. “The EU is expected to regain export market share following last year’s small crop and quality programs,” stated the WASDE report. U.S. wheat farmers may have less wheat to export, depending on crop yields.

 

China remains attractive for U.S. feed grains growth – DDGS and sorghum. “There is enormous potential here. China’s growth and development is still ongoing,” said U.S. Grains Council China Director Bryan Lohmar.