WASHINGTON, D.C. — Farmers are expected to plant record high soybean acreage this year, the USDA said Friday. Corn and wheat acreage are forecast to be down. Soybean acreage is expected to be 89.5 million acres, up 7 percent from last year’s 83.4 million. The projected area for harvest, at 88.7 million acres, is up from 82.7 million.

 

Corn is projected to be 90.9 million acres, down 3 percent from 94 million last year, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) stated in its June 30 Acreage report. The area harvested for grain is expected to be 83.5 million acres, down 4 percent from 86.7 million.

All wheat is forecast to be 45.7 million acres, down 9 percent from last year’s 50.2 million. Area for harvest is expected to be 38.1 million acres, down from 43.9 million. For winter wheat, 32.8 million acres are projected, down 9 percent from 36.1 million.

The economics of soybeans over the past few months probably kept acreage from increasing more than it did, said Rich Nelson, Allendale, Inc.’s chief analyst. The average pre-report trade guess was 89.8 million acres.

“There was a change in price in corn versus soybeans,” he noted. “Corn implied its revenue would fall from March 1 to the June 2 close for December corn futures by about $23 per acre. However, the same numbers for soybeans would imply a drop of $51 per acre from the March survey for November futures, simply because beans fell over $1 during that time frame. The economics pushed against beans on this one.”

NASS also released its update of grain stocks as of June 1. Corn was up 11 percent, from 4.7 billion bushels at this time last year to 5.2 billion. The March-May disappearance was 3.4 billion bushels, down from last year’s 3.1 billion.

Soybean stocks were 963 million bushels, up 11 percent from 872 million. The March-May disappearance was 775 million bushels, up 18 percent.

For old-crop wheat, stocks were 1.2 billion bushels, up 21 percent from 976 million. The March-May disappearance was 472 million bushels, or up 19 percent.

Corn stocks needed to come in closer to 5.15 billion bushels to be on pace to meet the USDA’s ending stocks number, said Darin Newsom, DTN senior analyst.

“It doesn’t bode well for the current ending stocks guess (2.3 billion bushels) for the 2016/17 crop year,” he explained. “We’re three-quarters of the way through the year. We have to get a better handle on old stocks. We just didn’t use as much corn as we needed to comfortably say we’re on track with USDA’s current projection.” 

 

The soybean stocks number is large but not cumbersome, Newsom noted. “It was expected to be the largest on record and it is, but just not as big as expected. It will bring some buying into the market.”

Acreage, stocks by state

In Illinois, corn planted for all purposes totaled 11.1 million acres, down from last year’s 11.6 million; Indiana, 5.5 million, down from 5.6 million; Iowa, 13.5 million, down from 13.9 million; Kentucky, 1.4 million, down from 1.5 million; Michigan, 2.5 million, up from 2.4 million; Ohio, 3.5 million, down from 3.6 million; and Tennessee, 840,000, down from 880,000. For soybeans, Illinois farmers planted 10.4 million acres, up from last year’s 10.1 million; Indiana, 5.9 million, up from 5.7 million; Iowa, 10 million, up from 9.5 million; Kentucky, 1.9 million, up from 1.8 million; Michigan, 2.3 million, up from 2.1 million; Ohio, 5 million, up from 4.9 million; and Tennessee, 1.8 million, up from 1.7 million.

All wheat planted in Illinois covered 520,000 acres, unchanged from last year; Indiana, 290,000, down from 330,000; Iowa, 20,000, down from 25,000; Kentucky, 460,000, down from 510,000; Michigan, 480,000, down from 610,000; Ohio, 460,000, down from 580,000; and Tennessee, 380,000, down from 400,000.

According to the NASS Grain Stocks report, Illinois had 882 million bushels of corn, up from last year’s 679 million; Indiana, 300 million, down from 301 million; Iowa, 1.1 billion, up from 1.02 billion; Kentucky, 32 million, down from 39 million; Michigan, 102 million, up from 94 million; and Ohio, 172 million, down from 176 million. (Information for Tennessee stocks was withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations.)

 

For soybean stocks, Illinois had 165 million bushels, up from last year’s 140 million; Indiana, 78 million, up from 58 million; Iowa, 178 million, down from 184 million; Michigan, 23 million, up from 21 million; and Ohio, 62 million, up from 52 million. (Figures on Kentucky’s soybean and wheat stocks, along with Iowa’s wheat numbers, were also withheld.)

All wheat stocks in Illinois totaled 24 million bushels, up from 17 million; Indiana, 28 million, up from 20 million; Michigan, 31 million, up from 16 million; and Ohio, 49 million, up from 36 million.