A drier weather pattern is emerging across the Eastern Corn Belt as we finish this week. After starting the week with plenty of rain north of I-70, and even some goodshower action south of I-70 in Indiana and Ohio, we have our last system for a while moving across the Eastern Corn Belt Wednesday and Thursday.

 

This system still has good potential with it and likely brings rains on the order of a quarter-inch to 1 inch with coverage at 70 percent of Indiana, southern Michigan and Ohio. This rain may not be immediately well liked, given all the moisture we have seen in the past week, but going forward, we may be happy to have received it.

We are shutting the moisture off starting this Friday, July 14, as a warmer, drier pattern starts to work its way in. We have already seen hot and dry conditions settle in over the Western Corn Belt and Great Plains this week, and over the coming days we expect that dryness to expand east.

We have no rain in the forecast from this Friday all the way through next week. Now, as we make this transition, and as heat builds, we may have a few pop up, heat-based thunderstorms to contend with, but we see no fresh, well organized frontal boundary headed our way through the end of next week.

In fact, we expect this general pattern to be in place through the end of the month. We will touch on that in just a bit. The map shows total precipitation from Friday, July 14 through July 21. Even this may be a little overdone.

Our next front with any significant potential at this point does not develop until we get closer to July 22. There, we have a nice sweeping front that should work through about 70 percent of the Corn Belt, bringing rains of one-tenth to one-half inch. These rains are not going to be enough to bring a lot of help or relief to the region, but will be at least something to look forward to.

If we are going to be looking for something to break the dry, upper level ridge pattern, this front is not going to be it.

 

Immediately behind it we move back into the warm, dry set up, which holds through theremainder of the period, and perhaps the rest of the month.

The kind of pattern we have emerging over the region is that of an upper level high pressure dome, supported by a strong ridge in the jetstream. This does two things:

•Steers most precipitation around the area where the ridge is forming

•Allows for some significant heat to build

In our case, we think the major heat will be delayed in developing here, so initially, we are just drying things outlater this week and next, without the oppressive heat that they will be seeing farther west in the corn belt.

However, the longer this pattern remains entrenched over the region, the better chance we have of seeing a prolonged period of 90+ degrees F., and the tougher it gets to break.

Since corn pollination is delayed in many instances and areas this year due to late planting, this dryness and potential heat is coming at exactly the wrong time.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant.

The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.